Javan Shouey
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Yesterday’s article finished 1-1 with Tanner Bibee falling short of his strikeout prop, but the Los Angeles Dodgers offense pouncing on Lance Lynn early. With all 30 MLB teams in action once again, MLB fans are going to have plenty of entertaining games to choose from. We have 2 daytime baseball games on the slate, but the featured pick for this article once again comes in the White Sox at Dodgers game. Let’s dive in!
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 6+ strikeouts / Dodgers ML (-148) (0.5U)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 7+ strikeouts / Dodgers ML (+100) (0.5U)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook for both bets at time of initial post to Twitter. Risking 1.24U to win 1.00U in total.
I have successfully bet against Clayton Kershaw twice this season by fading his outs recorded prop in tough matchups. The future hall-of-fame left-hander is still one of the league’s better arms, however, and in today’s matchup I look forward to backing him. Kershaw’s elite 69.4% first pitch strike rate sets him up in favorable counts more often than not. He is able to draw batters out of the zone with his 33.2% chase rate that ranks 88th percentile. The 48% chase contact rate allowed on those pitches is 10.2% lower than league average and ranks 8th best among qualified pitchers. He also wins in the zone with regularity, allowing the 8th lowest zone contact rate in baseball. His 15.1% swinging strike rate is 4th highest on that list while his 32.1% CSW% is tied with Shane McClanahan for 2nd behind Spencer Strider. Kershaw ranks 4th in MLB in K-BB% at 24.1%, a stat that exemplifies his elite strikeout abilities and plus command.
Kershaw is striking out 33.3% of the right-handed batters he has seen this season while walking only 5.3% of them. That is massive for this matchup as the Chicago White Sox are projected to stack 9 right-handed bats in today’s lineup. Each of his 3 pitches have a put away rate of at least 21.5% against RHB, and both his slider and curveball sit at 27.3% with 40%+ whiff rates. The White Sox are a plus matchup for him given their questionable plate discipline. In the last 30 days they have the league’s highest chase rate while connecting on those swings at the 9th lowest rate. Their zone contact rate during that time is only 17th while they have recorded the 4th highest swinging strike rate at 13.1%. Kershaw has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 starts with 7 or more in 7 of those games. His pitch count averages well into the 90’s and 7 innings in each of his last 2 starts are positive signs for both his workload and efficiency.
Chicago has struck out 9 times to both Braxton Garrett and Matthew Boyd within the last 10 days. Shane McClanahan, the best comparison for Kershaw in terms of K% from the left side, struck out 10 White Sox in his matchup against them. Their 23.8% K% on the year is 9th worst but over the last 30 days that rate jumps to 25.5%. That 239 PA sample ranks as the 8th highest K% during that span. No Eloy Jimenez in their lineup removes their biggest power threat as well which lessens their chances of large innings against Kershaw. The White Sox do prefer to face left-handers, but Kershaw has been tremendous this month allowing only 2 earned runs across 14 combined IP. His high ground ball and weak contact rates help to alleviate concerns when runners do reach base, and his 1.09 WHIP has prevented an overload of base runners.
Mike Clevinger will take the mound for Chicago in this game, making his 12th start as a member of the team. Clevinger has struggled for the most part, but his road starts have been particularly poor. Across 33 IP away from his home field, Clevinger has posted a 5.45 ERA with his team losing each of the last 4 games. Overall, the right-handers batted ball profile leaves a lot to be desired. His 8.9%-barrel rate is worse than league average for the 3rd straight season while his ground ball rate is a career low 33% clip. Opponents have a .435 xSLG against him overall which is the same mark as last season and a 33rd percentile mark. Clevinger uses 6 pitches but the main one we will focus on his is 4-seam fastball. He uses that offering 49.8% of the time and 57.6% of the time when behind in the count. Opponents are hitting .282 off that pitch with a .521 SLG and .387 wOBA. The Dodgers rank 9th in RV/100 against 4-seamers while sitting 9th in wOBA and 4th in ISO against right-handed 4-seamers specifically. Max Muncy was given a rest day yesterday but should return to add an extra boost to this lethal Dodgers offense.
The bullpens for both teams have question marks, ranking in the bottom half of FIP over the last 30 days. That being said, I worry more about Chicago’s unit as they are likely to be called upon earlier given Kershaw’s leash and the more advantageous matchup. Both units are relatively rested but Chicago is once again without Liam Hendricks who is on the IL. Look for run scoring opportunities to arise throughout the game for Los Angeles and the Dodgers to win their 4th straight game started by Kershaw.
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