Javan Shouey
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With daytime baseball and all 30 MLB teams in action, baseball fans are set up for a jam-packed day of entertainment on the diamond. The most anticipated game of the day is likely between Taj Bradley of the Rays and Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers. The featured bet for this article is in that game but is not a bet on pitching. Let’s dive in, but also check out all of our MLB predictions for today.
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Texas Rangers full game team total over 3.5 (-140) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds.
This 3.5 team total on the Rangers gives a ton of respect to Tampa Bay rookie starter Taj Bradley. While the 22-year-old right-hander has certainly impressed, I am willing to bet against him in this matchup. Bradley is the Rays top ranked prospect in their system, and that is noteworthy as Tampa Bay develops pitching extremely well. A 2.79 FIP and 2.91 SIERA through his first 7 MLB starts are not numbers I love to fade, but there are some areas in his game where the young arm is vulnerable. A 58.6% first pitch strike rate sets him behind in counts more than league average. Bradley’s chase rate sits just 33rd percentile as well. These unfavorable counts have spiked his 4-seam usage to 56.1% when behind in counts. Opponents have a .520 SLG and .424 wOBA against his 4-seamer in that scenario. Overall, Bradley gets hit hard too often, allowing a 42% hard-hit rate which ranks 34th percentile. Texas ranks 3rd in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.
Bradley has seen 71 PA from right-handed batters and 70 from left-handers. Despite an essentially even sample size, Bradley has been far worse against batters from the right-side. In those 71 PA, the rookie has allowed a .374 wOBA, .235 ISO, and 8.7%-barrel rate. Texas is likely to roll out 6 right-handed batters in today’s lineup. Their left-handed hitters aren’t easy outs either with Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager, and Jonah Heim being 3 of their more dangerous bats. Bradley doesn’t go very deep in ball games, topping 5 innings of work just twice in his 7 starts (5.1 and 5.2 innings in those starts.) Tampa Bay is always cautious with their young arms, and he has topped out at 90 pitches so far. His 4-seamer, cutter, curveball trio are all pitches that Texas ranks well against. It is also worth mentioning that when sent down to the minors, Bradley allowed 16 earned runs in 9 IP across 3 outings. He isn’t invincible despite his clear talent.
I typically decide to attack team totals in the first 5 innings of games, to eliminate as many variables as possible. In this situation, however, I want the full game team total as the Tampa Bay bullpen is highly exploitable. The Rays backend arms rank 27th in FIP and 28th in K-BB% over the course of the season. In the last 30 days, they rank 29th in both of those categories. They are also a taxed unit. Jason Adam would be making his 4th appearance in 6 days if he entered today’s game while 2 other arms are at risk of a 3rd appearance within 4 days.
In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Rangers rank 1st in wOBA, 3rd in ISO, and have a wRC+ of 121. They also crush left-handers in the event that is who they see from the bullpen. Their offense has been lethal all season, scoring the league’s most runs per game at 6.27. When on the road that mark falls to 5.81, but still ranks 1st among road teams. The Rangers have scored 4 or more runs in 43 of their 62 games this season. That includes 22 of their 32 road games and getting guaranteed at-bats for all 9 innings as the road team could be huge for this bet.
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