Javan Shouey
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Wednesday’s MLB action features all 30 teams in play, including a double-header between the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics. With games beginning in the early afternoon and carrying into the late night, there will be no shortage of entertainment from a baseball perspective.
From a betting standpoint, 2 plays stood out to me this morning as value. Let’s dive in!
Philadelphia Phillies team total over 4.5 (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds. Risking 1u.
There is no hotter offense currently than the Philadelphia Phillies, and their matchup today is an enticing one for scoring runs. The Phillies have been annihilating right-handed pitching, especially of late. Over the course of the season against right-handed pitching the Phillies sit 6th in wOBA and have a 115 wRC+. Since April 17, however, they jump to first in wOBA with a 144 wRC+ that trails only the Dodgers. In that span they have faced 14 right-handed starting pitchers, scoring 4 or more runs off of each of those starters before even tapping into the bullpens. This includes very good pitchers such as Logan Webb, Dylan Cease and even Jose Berrios last night (Berrios entered that game with a league-best ERA). The Phillies will now face Chris Bassitt, who is someone we can pick on — especially when pitching outside of his home park.
Bassitt has been a better pitcher at home for his entire career, posting a 4.37 road ERA compared to a 2.82 home ERA. Last season that continued, as his 2.86 home ERA spiked to 4.50 on the road. Through 14.2 innings on the road this season Bassitt has posted a 6.14 ERA, and his overall numbers are underwhelming. The right-hander has a 5.55 xERA, which is his worst mark since the 2016 season. Bassitt has historically done a decent job at limiting hard contact and controlling the strike zone, neither of which he has done successfully this season. Opponents are walking 11.0% of the time while generating barrels another 9.2% of the time. Bassitt utilizes 8 pitches, but 5 of them receive usage under 8% of the time. Despite having such a diverse pitch mix, his sinker still receives hefty usage — even though opponents are destroying that offering this season.
Temperatures are going to be in the mid-80s for this game in Philadelphia, and hitting conditions appear solid with wind blowing out to right at around 11 MPH. The Phillies are 2nd in runs per game in their home ballpark, averaging 5.48, and the plus money pricing is hard to pass up in this spot. Not only do they have advantages in the early innings against Bassitt, but the Toronto bullpen behind him is also a suspect unit. The Blue Jays’ relievers rank dead last this season in both ERA and FIP. I like the Phillies’ offense to continue rolling with 5 or more runs scored.
Nick Pivetta, BOS, Under 15.5 outs recorded (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
Nick Pivetta is someone I was looking forward to betting on this season before an IL stint put a pause on his season. The talented right-hander was shifted back and forth between the bullpen and a starting role in 2023, but he closed the season in terrific form which created a ton of offseason buzz. Pivetta was place on the injured list with elbow inflammation, and his last MLB start was back on April 3 against the Athletics. Despite a plus matchup and no runs allowed, Pivetta still took 90 pitches to complete those 5.0 innings of work and now will be asked to do so in a far tougher situation.
Pivetta made only 1 minor-league rehab outing, tossing 62 pitches across 16 total batters faced just 6 days ago. With 4 walks and 5 strikeouts Pivetta found himself in a ton of long counts, and his overall results were poor with 4 earned runs surrendered across 3 innings of work. Not only does Pivetta now take a step up in competition level by facing an MLB lineup, but he also immediately draws one of the best units in the sport in the Atlanta Braves. While Atlanta hasn’t been in peak form, there is no denying its ability at the plate nor the depth of its lineup.
Against right-handed pitching the Braves rank 7th in wOBA with a 108 wRC+ this season. They average the 11th-most pitches per plate appearance overall as a team, and they are capable of long innings with how they can get rolling as a unit. Even if Pivetta was needed for a large workload this play seems solid, but when factoring in the rest of the Boston bullpen I like it even more. The Red Sox had both Friday and Monday off and used only 3 arms last night for a combined 36 pitches. Their bullpen is well rested with numerous available pieces able to relieve Pivetta of his duties before he reaches the 6th inning.
