Javan Shouey
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JP Sears was fantastic yesterday for the Athletics, giving us a 1-1 day despite Tyler Anderson cashing his under 4.5 strikeouts prop. With another full slate of action today, including 7 afternoon games, MLB fans can be entertained throughout the day. The first game of the day is between the Texas Rangers and the Detroit Tigers, and we have a prop in that game.
Let’s dive in!
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Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
The Texas Rangers scored 10 runs in last night’s win over the Detroit Tigers. That was their 14th time this season scoring double digit runs through their first 54 games. Texas averages a league-high 6.37 runs per game this season with 3.83 coming in the first 5 innings, also a league-high mark. They were crushing the ball in the absence of Corey Seager, but his return has been a welcomed addition. Seager has mashed this month, recording 19 RBI and posting an .896 OPS in 12 May games. On Monday when I took this same bet, Seager’s 3-run home run in the 5th inning pushed Texas over the 2.5 total.
Texas has been lethal against pitchers of either handedness — but especially against left-handed pitchers. The Rangers have scored 3 or more runs within the first 5 innings off 12 of the last 13 southpaw starters they have faced. They are likely to draw a matchup against Joey Wentz today. Wentz is a left-hander who has struggled this season, posting a 7.80 ERA through 42.2 IP. While his 5.47 xERA (15th percentile) and 5.51 FIP are better than his current ERA, they are still discouraging marks. Wentz struggles to generate many whiffs, and his lack of strikeout abilities leads to a ton of balls in play. His quality of contact allowed isn’t the greatest either. The left-hander has allowed a 42.8% hard-hit rate this season with a 9%-barrel rate and .491 xSLG.
Wentz utilizes a 4-pitch arsenal with his 4-seam fastball leading the way at 45.1% usage. That offering has been one of the single worst pitches in baseball this season as he is allowing a .676 SLG and .478 wOBA against it with 5 home runs on 60 batted ball events. His curveball has also been hit hard with a .500 SLG and .343 wOBA across 19 batted ball events and 13.3% usage. Wentz throws a cutter and changeup as well, but Texas ranks 8th and 1st, respectively, against those pitches in terms of RV/100. There have been rumors circulating that Detroit could use an opener for the 1st inning before bringing in Wentz to handle to bulk of the workload in today’s game. Even if that is the case and the opener is a right-hander, that is fine as Texas has 2 switch-hitters and 3 LHB in today’s lineup. I like this number as Texas has their top 6 bats in the lineup despite having a travel day. Look for the Rangers offense to keep rolling in the early innings.
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