Javan Shouey
Show Bio
Unfortunately, there are no daytime baseball games today, but with all 30 teams scheduled for the late slate MLB fans will have plenty of action to take in. With star pitchers such as Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Shane McClanahan and Joe Ryan taking the mounds tonight, viewers will have numerous chances to witness quality pitching. There are also pitchers worth fading playing today, including Tyler Anderson, who is the focus of today’s article. Let’s dive in!
This prop is available at DraftKings Sportsbook, and if you sign up right now, then you can bet $5 and secure $200 in bonus bets IMMEDIATELY! Head over to DraftKings now by clicking this link.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) under 4.5 strikeouts (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
The 33-year-old Tyler Anderson signed with the Los Angeles Angels this offseason following an All-Star season with the crosstown Dodgers. He was able to maintain a BABIP of .256 last season, the only season in his 8-year career with a BABIP below .281. A career-high 178.2 IP helped the Dodgers win 111 games and he parlayed his performance into a new deal. In 30 regular-season appearances with the Dodgers, he was held under this 4.5 strikeout mark 18 times, however. Anderson has never been a high strikeout-rate guy, and this season his numbers have taken another hit. Typically thriving on his command throughout his career, Anderson has seen his Location+ grade fall from 105 last season to right below average at 99 this season. The southpaw has struggled to control his repertoire this year. He is throwing first-pitch strikes at a career-low 58.6% rate, which is setting him behind in counts. Anderson’s 10.5% BB% is a 26th-percentile clip and the worst of his career. His 3.2% K-BB% ranks 4th-lowest in MLB among pitchers with 40 or more innings this season. He trails only Brad Keller, Josh Fleming and Alek Manoah on that list.
Anderson has struggled overall this season, seeing his career best 3.31 FIP from last season become a career-worst 5.53 FIP this year. His 4-seam fastball has seen a decrease in velocity, falling below 90 mph on average. That offering is getting demolished with a .629 SLG and .443 wOBA against it. His sinker and cutter have both regressed from last season’s production as well, but his changeup is what will decide this play. Statistically, the White Sox’ largest weakness of all the pitches in Anderson’s portfolio is the changeup. They rank 25th in RV/100 this season against that pitch, but a lot of their troubles have come from having to face Shane McClanahan twice. McClanahan has arguably the filthiest changeup in baseball. Anderson has recorded 14 of his 30 strikeouts this season on that pitch, but it is not nearly as lethal as last season’s version. Overall, Anderson has a career-worst 26.6% chase rate, which is down from his 35.3% clip last season, and his chase contact rate allowed is 5.3% higher than the league average. With Chicago willing to chase on pitches outside the zone, his worsened numbers are crucial.
Inside the zone is where the White Sox do their damage, ranking 10th in Z-Contact%. Their 21.6% K% against southpaw pitching ranks 12th-lowest in MLB, but their 19.3% clip this month is 7th-best. Historically this White Sox lineup has preferred to face left-handed pitching, and this month their wRC+ is 118 against them. Of 9 left-handed starting pitchers to face off against Chicago, 6 have stayed under their respective strikeout props. Anderson has gone under 4.5 strikeouts in 7 of his 9 starts this season with 3 or fewer in each of his last 3 outings. Chicago is also expected to stack their lineup with 8 or 9 right-handed batters, and RHB against Anderson this season have an .877 OPS and .224 ISO. The White Sox have the 3rd-fewest looking strikeouts this season, while Anderson had only 4 strikeouts via a looking 3rd strike. Look for another low strikeout outing from Anderson in this matchup.
You can also read today’s YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
JP Sears (OAK) under 17.5 outs recorded (-115)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
The 27-year-old JP Sears is in his 1st full season with the Oakland Athletics following the trade with New York that sent Frankie Montas to the Yankees. Sears, Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina were the main attractions in the package Oakland returned, and so far, Sears has produced the most inspiring results among those 3 players. That isn’t saying much, however, as his numbers are still worthy of a fade in my eyes. His 4.70 ERA is shadowed by an even more worrisome 5.15 FIP. The southpaw cannot keep the ball on the ground, generating only a 27.3% ground ball rate this season through his first 53.2 IP. Not only are opponents elevating the ball, but they are crushing him with an 11.0%-barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate. With at least 1 home run allowed in 8 of his 10 starts, and 12 total this season, Sears likely won’t be thrilled to see 10 mph winds blowing out tonight.
Sears has benefited this season from a .261 BABIP despite the league average mark sitting at .297. He now draws his toughest opponent to date in the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta absolutely crushes left-handed pitching this season. They rank 2nd in both wOBA and ISO against southpaw pitching while posting a wRC+ of 150. The only offense in MLB that has been more productive against that handedness is the Tampa Bay Rays. They have the 10th highest fly ball rate with the 2nd highest HR/FB ratio. Their 41.9% hard-hit rate sits 4% higher than the next closest team. Atlanta is also patient, averaging the 7th most pitches per plate appearance this season. Sears averages 3.99 pitches per plate appearance which ranks 31st of 117 qualified pitchers. This could lead to an increased pitch count and shorter leash for the young lefty, and Atlanta has had 12 of 14 left-handed starting pitchers under this 17.5 mark.
Speaking of a short leash, despite allowing only 1 run on 59 pitches across 5 innings of work, Sears was pulled from his last start before seeing the 6th inning. “JP was throwing the ball well, but we had a full bullpen lined up,” manager Mark Kotsay said. “He gave us five good, strong innings. France had homered off him in the first inning. I felt confident in the matchup with [Trevor] May coming in there.” That was the left-hander’s most efficient outing to date, but he was still pulled. Kotsay referenced the struggles that Oakland’s rotation had had the 3rd time through the order this season as one of the factors that played into the decision. I would be surprised to see as short of a leash again, but that added element provides this play with another layer towards our case. With his struggles, a tough matchup and a shaky workload, fading Sears at this inflated number is an enticing play for me today.
You can bet this player prop over at Caesars Sportsbook, which has an epic sign-up offer where you can get up to $1,250 back on your first bet. Click this link to join Caesars and also benefit from odds boosts every day.
Pickswise is the home of free expert MLB Predictions every day of the season. Check out today’s MLB Best Bets now.
