Javan Shouey
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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays facing off feels like a potential World Series preview and tonight’s pitching matchup should be fun to watch. Tyler Glasnow makes his season debut for the Rays after dealing with an oblique strain and the league is a better place when he is healthy. Clayton Kershaw will take the mound for the Dodgers and he is the focus of my play today. Let’s dive in!
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Clayton Kershaw (LAD) under 18.5 outs recorded (-150) (0.75U)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds (risking 1.2U to win 0.75U)
It is never fun betting against someone as lethal as Clayton Kershaw, but this play jumped off the board to me this morning. The future Hall of Fame southpaw is having another productive season for Los Angeles. That being said, efficiency hasn’t been Kershaw’s strong suit of late, and he has failed to make it out of the 5th inning in 3 of his last 4 starts. The only time he surpassed that mark during that span was against Milwaukee, which has noted struggles against lefties. Even when Kershaw has been more effective with his pitch count, exiting after the 6th inning has been his most likely scenario. In 10 starts this season the left-hander has been held under 18.5 outs 7 times, including 5 of 6 on the road. Dating back to last season he has gone under 18.5 in 24 of 33 starts. While he isn’t on a pitch count or anything, Los Angeles would love to get a full season out of him and aren’t likely to overextend him without cause. With between 149 and 236 innings thrown each season from 2009 to 2019, Kershaw has a ton of miles logged. He has failed to reach 127 or more IP in each of the last 3 seasons, however.
Kershaw is still a top-end arm in an elite team’s rotation, but his 3.97 pitches per plate appearance ranks in just the 31st percentile while Tampa Bay draws a league-average 3.91 pitches/PA. He draws a tough matchup today against a lethal Rays lineup. Tampa Bay has the ability to stack its lineup with 9 RHB against southpaws, and the results have been fantastic. The Rays rank 1st in both wOBA and ISO this season against left-handed pitching while posting a wRC+ of 168. None of the 10 left-handed starters to face Tampa Bay have recorded more than 18 outs. Albeit none are as good as Kershaw, but those arms have allowed a combined 51 earned runs in their 46.2 IP. The lanky left-hander uses a 3-pitch mix with his slider, 4-seamer, and curveball ranked in order of usage. Tampa Bay matches up extremely well against that arsenal, ranking 1st in RV/100 against the 4-seamer, while ranking 2nd against the slider and 3rd against the curveball in that same metric. Los Angeles has a fully rested bullpen behind Kershaw having had Thursday off and using only Justin Bruihl in relief last night. Should Tampa Bay be able to run up his pitch count, the Dodgers have plenty of options to turn to in the later stages.
Corbin Burnes (MIL) under 7.5 strikeouts (-135)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Corbin Burnes was utterly dominant in 2021, winning the NL Cy Young Award with a 2.43 ERA and 12.6 K/9. He was terrific again last season, posting a 2.94 ERA with a declining but still very good 10.6 K/9. Through 10 starts this season, however, his ERA is 3.97 with an even more worrisome 4.82 FIP and 4.47 SIERA. His K/9 has fallen all the way to 8.1 this year as well. That decline in strikeout production began in mid-August last season. Since his August 13 start against the Cardinals last season, Burnes has made 21 starts while staying under this lofty 7.5 number 18 times. He has tossed 122.2 combined innings across those 21 starts with only 119 strikeouts.
Burnes has never been particularly good at getting ahead in counts, but his elite ability to draw chases always let him back in easily. This season Burnes has seen his career-long 33% chase rate fall to 28.7% while his chase contact rate allowed is 6.9% higher than his career average. San Francisco has the 10th-lowest chase rate this season as a team. Burnes’ zone contact rate allowed is also a career-worst 84.4% mark which ranks 2.4% higher than the league average. This is his first season with a zone contact rate higher than 80%. He has seen career-low marks in his SwStr% and CSW% and as a result while being held under this 7.5 number in 9 of 10 starts.
The Giants are not a team I typically look to back with an opposing pitcher’s strikeout under, but I like how they match up against Burnes. One of the 9 starts in which Burnes stayed under 7.5 strikeouts was against the Giants just 3 weeks ago. The right-hander tossed 6 innings but recorded only 5 strikeouts. Burnes allowed a 94.4% zone contact rate to San Francisco in the first matchup, a notable point given they have the 4th-lowest zone contact rate in baseball this season. Burnes allowed a 96.2% zone contact rate in his last outing against Houston while also allowing a career-high 4 home runs. Where the Giants excel is in their disciplinary numbers. Not only do they chase at a low rate, but they draw the 5th-most pitches per plate appearance. If they are able to connect in the zone as well, there is a ton of value in this prop.
Of the last 16 right-handed starting pitchers to face the Giants only Zack Wheeler has exceeded this 7.5 mark. The most recent notable names to stay under this mark against them include Freddy Peralta (4), Joe Ryan (4), Sonny Gray (6), Sandy Alcantara (5) and Zac Gallen (6). San Francisco may have strikeout threats that make this 7.5 line possible as they possess plenty of power. Against right-handed pitching this season the Giants rank 7th in wOBA, 4th in ISO and have a wRC+ of 109. The Milwaukee bullpen is relatively rested having used only 2 arms in relief yesterday. There are noted concerns with backing the Giants, but at this line I am more than willing to do so.
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