Javan Shouey
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Sunday baseball can be tricky with lineups and managerial decisions on travel days, but today’s 15-game slate appears glorious nonetheless. Today’s prop article will highlight two struggling pitchers in Joe Musgrove and Patrick Corbin.
Let’s dive in!
New York Yankees team total over 3.5 (-150) (Risking 0.6u)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
New York Yankees team total over 4.5 (+114) (Risking 0.4)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
This is essentially a flat 4 as we get our money back if the Yankees land exactly on 4 runs. Splitting across books saved us 8 cents from the o4 offered at Caesars for -125 so figured it was worth the extra shopping around. Regardless, I think this is another advantageous spot for the red-hot Yankees lineup to continue doing damage. New York has been ripping the cover off the ball this season, averaging the 7th-most runs per game and the 2nd most when on the road. Against right-handed pitching within the last 30 days the Yankees rank atop the leaderboards in wOBA, AVG and SLG while producing a 144 wRC+ and the 2nd-lowest strikeout rate. Their combination of power and plate discipline is what made the Braves offense so potent last season, as there is no good way to attack this group of sluggers. Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton have all belted at least 13 home runs while Anthony Volpe and Alex Verdugo have produced consistently across the board.
Today the Yankees face Joe Musgrove. The Padres right-hander has not had his best season so far, allowing a 6.14 ERA through his first 44 innings of work. His underlying metrics are poor as well with a 6.02 xERA, 5.81 FIP, and his lowest K-BB% since he was a Pirate. Musgrove’s 10.5%-barrel rate allowed has resulted in 10 home runs surrendered, and overall, his .296 xBA sits just 7th percentile. He landed on the IL with Elbow inflammation at the beginning of the month and has made just one start since returning, tossing 3 innings of 2-run ball with 5 baserunners allowed against the Cincinnati Reds. I would expect he continues to get stretched out and we will likely see more than the 66 pitches he tossed in his last start, unless he gets shelled from the very start. The Yankees have scored 11 combined earned runs off of Yu Darvish and Dylan Cease to begin this series. Among the last 12 right-handed starters they have faced, 10 of them have allowed 3 or more earned runs before handing the ball off to their respective bullpens. San Diego’s bullpen is not a unit I am hunting out, but with the Yankees set to see all 9 innings as the road team I see value extending this to a full game team total.
Patrick Corbin (WAS) Over 5.5 hits allowed (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125. 1u.
The Seattle Mariners have been an underwhelming offense this season, and their production against southpaw pitching has been inconsistent. I do like their spot today, however, as they will face off against Patrick Corbin on a warm day in Washington. Corbin has been one of the better pitchers to pick on for several seasons now, as his quality of contact metrics are amongst the worst in the sport. This season the left-hander ranks 1st percentile in xBA with a .328 mark, and 5th percentile with a 49.2% hard-hit rate. He rarely misses bats, especially on pitches inside the zone, and thus a ton of contact is made against him. This is especially true in 2024 as his current zone rate is the highest of his career.
Corbin has allowed 6 or more hits in 9 of his 10 starts this season, and 51 of his 73 starts dating back to the start of 2022. Not only does he allow a ton of hard contact, but his leash is generally rather long. Despite poor results the Nationals continue to let him pitch deep into ball games and eat up innings for their club, and even in his last start against the Twins he saw 106 pitches across 29 batters faced despite 12 baserunners reaching and 8 crossing the plate. Corbin doesn’t discriminate in who he allows hits to, allowing a .335 average to right-handed batters and a .340 mark to lefty bats. With temperatures in the mid-80’s hitting conditions should be good enough for Seattle to find 6 or more hits off of this struggling arm.
