Javan Shouey
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Yesterday’s article went 1-1 with the Texas Rangers scoring 2 early runs but failing to score again until the 6th inning. The play we did win on was Masataka Yoshida under 0.5 strikeouts, and today we are getting an even better price. While I understand why the price has changed, I am still finding value in his elite plate discipline. Let’s dive in!
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Masataka Yoshida (BOS) under 0.5 strikeouts (+120) (0.5U)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -110 odds.
Last night, Masataka Yoshida went 0-4, a game in which the Boston offense recorded only 2 hits. Griffin Canning was exceptional for the Angels, tossing 7 scoreless innings while Matt Moore and Jacob Webb shut things down from the bullpen. Yoshida didn’t strike out, however, and for this prop that is all we care about. Tonight, Yoshida will draw a matchup against fellow southpaw Tyler Anderson. While the lefty-on-lefty matchup may not seem ideal, the same handedness matchup doesn’t concern me a ton. Yoshida actually sees his 9.8% K% against right-handed pitching fall to 9.1% against left-handers. Anderson has seen his overall K% drop to a career-low 13.7% this season. That mark ranks just 6th percentile in all of MLB and it falls even further to 13.0% against LHB.
The veteran pitcher is in his first season with the Halos and has struggled to find his command. A career worst 59.4% first pitch strike rate is setting him behind in counts and his stuff has never been his strength. Command has always allowed him to survive in this league, but his 47.9% zone rate, 26.6% chase rate, and 10.7% BB% are all worrisome marks. Not being able to consistently throw a first pitch strike is massive against Yoshida as he swings at the first pitch only 11.6% of the time. Last night, Yoshida found himself down 0-2 in 2 of his PA against Canning, but his elite contact skills helped him battle. With a zone contact rate 4.8% higher than league average, Yoshida has the ability to reach any pitch within the zone. His chase contact rate is 20.7% better than league average while his discipline is elite as well. Yoshida chases 3% less than average while having identical 9.4% walk and strikeout rates.
Yoshida has only 1 strikeout this season from a looking 3rd strike. Anderson has only registered 2 of his 27 strikeouts from a looking strike. Home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt historically has a rather tight strike zone that favors batters with a keen eye. If Anderson is going to strikeout Yoshida, it will likely have to be on a swinging strike. Of Anderson’s 27 strikeouts this season, 14 of them have come against the changeup. The thing is, Anderson rarely uses his changeup to left-handed batters, seeing his usage drop to 7.1% against southpaws compared to a repertoire-high 41.8% usage against right-handers. Instead, the left-hander uses his cutter far more often. Yoshida has struck out only 17 times this season, and despite seeing just cutters 9.3% of the time, 3 of his 17 strikeouts are against that offering, the highest put away rate of any pitch against him. This is certainly noteworthy, but I still I love his matchup against Anderson. Behind Anderson is an Angels bullpen ranking 23rd in K% this season. Yoshida’s ability to fight off pitches against pitchers of either handedness provides value for us in the later innings as well.
Tyler Wells (BAL) under 17.5 outs recorded (-133)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -140 odds.
Tyler Wells has played a key role in Baltimore’s success this season. His 2.94 ERA leads the team while his 0.79 WHIP leads all qualifying pitchers in MLB. That being said, he has been one of baseball’s most fortunate pitchers so far, and I am looking to fade him in tonight’s matchup. The 6’8″ right-hander has benefited from a remarkably low .163 BABIP despite his 42.4% hard-hit rate ranking 31st percentile. Not only does he get hit hard but his 36% flyball rate and 10.8% barrel rate are both worrisome numbers for this matchup. When runners have gotten on base, they have been stranded there 89.3% of the time. Wells has a career LOB% of 73.5% and with a larger sample of games more runners should begin to cross the plate against him. The 2.94 ERA he currently holds turns into a 4.64 FIP which is the worst mark of his 3-year career.
Wells doesn’t walk many batters, but he does waste a lot of pitches. He struggles to finish counts early with his 4.07 pitches per plate appearance tying him for 17th most among 118 qualified pitchers. This hinders his ability to go deep in games, falling short of the 6-inning mark in 5/9 games despite fantastic results to date. One of the games he did reach 6 innings was against New York this season. He did get roughed up in that outing, however, allowing a season-high 4 earned runs. The Yankees struggled to begin the season but during the month of May they have crushed right-handed pitching. This month they rank 5th in wOBA, 2nd in ISO and have a wRC+ of 114. Their flyball rate this month is the 5th highest against right-handed pitching while they sport the 3rd highest HR/FB%.
The right-hander uses a 5-pitch arsenal with his 4-seam fastball’s 37.9% usage leading the way. New York has crushed 4-seamers this month ranking 2nd behind Tampa Bay in run value/100. Wells’ changeup induces his most whiffs of any pitch but the Yankees rank 1st in RV/100 against the changeup this month. Hitting his main pitches hard could lead to heavier usage of his secondary pitches and less command of the zone. Baltimore has a fantastic bullpen that ranks 2nd in FIP, and they are relatively rested having had Monday off. Should Wells run into any trouble with his pitch count heightened, we could see the plug pulled early on his outing. The Yankees have won 15 of their last 20 games and I look for their offense to produce once again in this matchup.
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