Javan Shouey
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The Pickswise family is on a 9-2 run with our MLB prop articles! With a full 15-game slate and plenty of intriguing games to choose from, bettors can also find value in today’s slate. The Texas Rangers have been very good for us lately, and with another opportune matchup they are the focus of my best bet today. Let’s dive in!
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Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
The Texas Rangers were held scoreless through the first 5 innings of last night’s game. That is a rare occurrence for the team that is leading MLB in runs per game through 5 innings this season. The Rangers were facing a young right-hander in Luis Ortiz who was very solid in his 7.2 IP. This evening they will look to bounce back against left-hander Rich Hill. Hill pitched very well in his last outing, allowing only 1 hit in 6 scoreless innings against Detroit. That being said, there are clear signs of regression in his game, and the Rangers are one of the tougher matchups for left-handed pitchers. Hill sports a 3.80 ERA but his 4.62 FIP and 5.87 xERA are far less inspiring. The southpaw falls behind in counts often with a 57.2% first-pitch strike rate. At 43, Hill relies heavily on commanding the zone, but he has been missing spots this season. A 12.6%-barrel rate, .520 xSLG, and 30.1%-line drive rate are all worrisome marks. His ground-ball rate is the lowest since his 2009 season which lowers his chances of getting easy outs and out of jams.
This season Texas ranks 3rd in wOBA, 4th in BB%, and have a 133 wRC+ against southpaw pitching. All of the last 11 left-handed starting pitchers to face Texas have allowed 3 or more runs within the first 5 innings. That includes Jared Schuster and Kyle Freeland last week, both of whom we bet against. Freeland was absolutely blitzed out of the gates with the Rangers scoring 8 runs off him in his 2 innings. Texas finished that game with 11 runs, their 11th time scoring double-digit runs this season. Most of their production this season has been without star shortstop Corey Seager, but his return has been an instant boost to the lineup. He has recorded at least 1 RBI in all 5 games since his return with 9 total in his 19 AB and a 1.175 OPS. The league average wOBA for batters this season is .316. The lowest wOBA against LHP of any Ranger bat in today’s projected lineup is Nathaniel Lowe and his .310 wOBA. All other 8 projected bats are above the league average while Lowe himself is still a threat. I love the combination of patience and power that Texas possesses, and I am more than willing to back them again this evening.
Check out today’s MLB mega parlay at +925 odds
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) under 0.5 strikeouts (-105) (0.5U)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Japanese sensation Masataka Yoshida has hit the ground running in his MLB career, posting a .878 OPS and .308 batting average in his first season for the Red Sox. Boston signed him to a $90 million contract this offseason. The money raised some eyebrows, but his production has been inarguable. In his 7 seasons playing in Japan, Yoshida drew 427 walks compared to only 307 strikeouts. His discipline has translated so far with matching 9.6% walk and strikeout rates. The left-hander is difficult to strike out for pitchers of either handedness which makes this prop valuable in the bullpen innings as well. His 10.1% K% against right-handed pitching drops even further to 9.3% in his 54 PA against fellow lefties so far.
Yoshida has struck out 17 times this season with only 1 of them being on a looking 3rd strike. His eye is fantastic and if the pitch is close, he is typically looking to foul it off. Yoshida’s 24.9% chase rate ranks 62nd percentile while his chase contact rate sits 19.7% higher than league average. His zone contact rate is 5% higher than league average as well. When he does swing, Yoshida whiffs only 15.9% of the time which ranks 91st percentile. His 9.6% K% is tied for 5th lowest with Jeff McNeil of the Mets. The 5’8″ left-hander has some of the game’s most elite contact skills already and draws a matchup today against the Angels and Griffin Canning.
After missing all of the 2022 season with injury, Canning has returned to the Angels rotation. He is making his 7th start of the season and has surpassed his 4.5 strikeout prop just once. That outing was against the Oakland Athletics and their league-high strikeout rate to right-handed pitching. With only 18 strikeouts in his other 24.1 IP, Canning hasn’t been generating many whiffs. Even when fully healthy in 2021, Canning still averaged under a strikeout per inning pitched. His swinging strike rate has now seen a 2.3% drop from when we last saw him. Canning has just a 14.3% K% against left-handed batters in 63 PA so far this season, compared to a 23.5% K% against right-handed batters.
Yoshida doesn’t have more than 4 strikeouts this season against any individual pitch. His highest whiff rate is against sliders, but Canning uses his sliders far less against left-handers. Canning spikes his changeup usage when facing lefties, but Yoshida has only 1 strikeout against the changeup this season. The only pitch Yoshida has a whiff rate of 20% or higher against with 2 strikes is a cutter, a pitch that Canning doesn’t utilize. We should only expect around 5 innings from Canning, and possibly 2 PA from Yoshida against Los Angeles relievers. As a unit, Los Angeles has the 8th-lowest strikeout rate this season. Closer Carlos Estevez would be the largest threat for a Yoshida strikeout, but he may not even see the mound with Boston as slight favorites. Yoshida has gone without a strikeout in 25 of 40 games this season including 12 of his last 17.
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