Javan Shouey
Show Bio
Happy Mother’s Day to all mothers out there and to all MLB fans, as well. This day is one that is often a special day in the sport. Whether it is Dallas Braden with his improbable perfect game or Joey Votto with his 3-home run performance that included a walkoff grand slam, there always seems to be unforgettable moments on this day.
With a full 15-game slate to consume, let’s dive in on my favorite prop bets for this afternoon!
Minnesota Twins first 5 innings team total Over 2.5 (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120. 0.5u.
The Minnesota Twins offense is red hot right now, and I am going to back them once again today. I will be splitting my unit between their team total in the first 5 innings, and their team total throughout the duration of the game. Let’s start with the Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah who will make his 2nd appearance with the major league club this season after beginning the year in the minors. Through Manoah’s first 2 MLB seasons, he was considered a top of the rotation arm and a potential Cy Young candidate entering his third season. Those first 2 years combined for 51 starts spanning 308.1 innings of work while holding opponents to a 2.60 ERA. His underlying run indicators were positive as well while his quality of contact metrics were among the league’s best. He fell apart last season, however, and is now someone I am looking to bet against until he can regain his all-star form.
Across 87.1 innings in 2023 Manoah allowed a 5.87 ERA, 6.12 xERA, 6.01 FIP, 5.85 xFIP, 6.08 BB/9, 1.74 WHIP, 9.0%-barrel rate, and 44.8% hard-hit rate. He struggled to keep the ball on the ground and was knocked around with consistency, essentially regardless of matchup. Manoah was eventually sent down as Toronto could not justify letting him continue with his form in their rotation. He began 2024 injured with a shoulder but made 5 minor league rehab appearances before his first MLB start last week. The first of those rehab starts was an A-ball outing where he allowed 9 baserunners and 7 runs in under 2 innings of work. He was still moved up to AAA where he allowed 13 earned runs and 30 baserunners in only 18 innings of work. Manoah still found his way back on a big-league mound last Sunday, allowing 4 walks, 2 homeruns, and 7 total runs in 4 innings of work against the Nationals. I expect the Twins bats to get to Manoah in this spot.
Minnesota Twins team total Over 4.5 (-105)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125. 0.5u.
The recent form of this Twins offense is exceptional, as they are making a far higher rate of contact and even going the other way with the ball. This team is known for strikeouts, walks, and flyballs, but the last few weeks they have been more complete as a unit and the results are showing. After starting the season 6-12, Minnesota has rattled off wins in 17 of their last 21 wins, even including last night’s loss. Despite their loss yesterday, Minnesota still scored 8 runs against a Kevin Gausman led Blue Jays pitching staff. I like their chances today against a weaker starter and the same shaky bullpen. During this 21-game stretch that began on April 21, Minnesota has demolished right-handed pitching. In their 548 plate appearances, the 5th largest sample size in that span, the Twins sit 1st in SLG, 3rd in wOBA, 5th in FB%, 9th in hard-hit rate, and have the 12th lowest strikeout rate.
Their recent success has come against very good pitchers including Gausman, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby who have allowed a combined 5 home runs, 23 hits, and 18 earned runs in just 12 innings. Not only do the Twins get a softer starting pitcher to face today, but they still have the struggling Toronto bullpen as well. I like splitting my bets as even if Manoah is able to hold the Twins to 2 or fewer runs through the first 5, I think Minnesota can clear their full game benchmark. The Blue Jays bullpen ranks 30th in ERA and 29th in FIP this season while allowing the highest rate of hard contact. Against right-handed pitching during innings 6 through 9 this season, Minnesota ranks 4th in wOBA with a 119 wRC+. With all 9 innings locked in regardless of score as the road team, I expect plenty of run scoring opportunities for the Twins.
Philadelphia Phillies ML/Team total Over 3.5 (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM Sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -130. 1u.
Like the Twins, the Philadelphia Phillies are another team that is currently rolling through their competition. The Phillies have won 2o of their most recent 24 games, and in 18 of those 20 wins they have scored at least 4 runs. In fact, 26 of their 28 wins this season have been accompanied by 4 runners crossing the plate, as their offense has been a consistent aspect of winning their ball games. Now, of course you need to score runs to win games, but the Phillies lineup has been producing at an elite level of late. Across this 24-game stretch that began on April 15, also my birthday, the Phillies lead all of baseball in wOBA and have a 134 wRC+. Against southpaw pitching during that stretch, they sit 5th in wOBA with a 130 wRC+. Trea Turner is out with hamstring tightness while Kyle Schwarber is day-to-day with back stiffness. While neither of those aspects are ideal, there is still plenty to like with this Phillies lineup in this matchup.
I am generally a fan of Braxton Garrett and will eventually be betting overs on his strikeout props, but this is a tough spot for him to make his season debut. He dealt with shoulder issues in the early spring and was shut down at one point with dead arm. Garrett made 4 rehab starts in AAA and then his most recent outing was in the complex league to seemingly build up his confidence against weaker competition. While his numbers weren’t bad in those outings, this is a major step up in competition, and the Phillies are a team that has had Garrett’s number in recent matchups. Braxton faced this Phillies lineup 3 times last season, spanning a combined 13 innings while allowing 8 combined earned runs and pitching no deeper than the 5th inning. Despite overall solid performance in 2023, he did rank just 13th percentile in xBA thanks to an 8th percentile hard-hit rate. Behind Braxton is a Marlins bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA and 22nd in FIP this season.
Zack Wheeler should do his part to contain the Marlins offense in this matchup, as the Phillies ace enters play in elite form. Wheeler has allowed only 1 earned runs across 25.1 innings of work in his last 4 starts, posting a 0.75 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in that span. His season long numbers are elite as well with a 2.31 FIP and 2.60 xFIP backing up his 1.64 ERA. Wheeler is working extremely deep into games with 100 or more pitches in 6 consecutive outings, and he should be able to complete 6 or 7 strong frames in this matchup against a weak Marlins lineup. Miami sits 25th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 84 in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, and a large chunk of that was with Luis Arraez who is no longer in town. The Marlins are still a generally low K% lineup that leads baseball in GB% and has the lowest BB% against righties in the last month. This allows for opposing starters to efficiently work deep, and Wheeler registered 4 quality starts against Miami just last season. Philadelphia’s bullpen is also due for positive regression, having the largest discrepancy between their ERA and FIP so far this season.
