Javan Shouey
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The weekend is here, and we have an enticing MLB slate for this Saturday. With numerous games to choose from, there are plenty of betting angles to attack. My 2 favorite bets of the day are highlighted below, so let’s dive in!
Garrett Whitlock, SP, BOS Under 1.5 walks (+115)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds. Risking 1u.
Garrett Whitlock has been used by the Boston Red Sox as both a reliever and starter during the past several seasons, but regardless of what role he has played the right-hander has showcased elite command of the strike zone. Typically when pitchers with good stuff bounce back and forth between roles, it is due to a lack of control or lack of depth in their pitching arsenal. Neither is an issue for Whitlock as the 6’5” pitcher utilizes a 5-pitch mix and has a career-long BB/9 of only 1.77. His BB% of 4.3% and 4.8% in the last 2 seasons are elite rates, ranking 98th and 91st percentile in those respective seasons. Whitlock has amassed a 67.0% first pitch strike rate across his career, a mark that sits 6.9% higher than league average and allows him to consistently work from ahead in counts.
Whitlock has now made 11 starts in the last 2 seasons, staying under 1.5 walks issued in 9 of those outings — including 0 walks across 5 innings in his 2024 debut. In 20 career starts he has allowed 2 or more walks just 5 times. He faced only 19 batters across his 81-pitch workload, and with Boston easing him back into a starting role we could see similar usage for the first month or so. Whitlock will face the Los Angeles Angels in his 2nd start of the season, and through their first 188 PA against right-handed pitching this season they have just a 7.4% BB%, the 10th lowest mark. They do have some patient batters atop the order that will likely post solid season-long walk rates, but at plus money this prop shows too much value for me to pass on.
Jake Irvin, SP, WAS Under 5.5 strikeouts (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -150 odds. Risking 1u.
Last Sunday’s article highlighted under 5.5 strikeouts on Jake Irvin as a prop with value, and despite a strikeout-heavy opponent in the Reds, Irvin was held under his mark with just 4 Ks on the day. The 2nd-year right-handed pitcher has displayed very little strikeout potential in his brief time at the major-league level. His K/9 in 121 MLB innings last season sat at just 7.36, while his 7.0% swinging strike rate was among the lowest in the league. Irvin ranked just 3rd percentile in both whiff rate and chase rate during the 2023 season, and his 56.8% first pitch strike rate made it difficult for him to get ahead in counts. In the offseason he added a cutter in hopes of finding the zone more, but he used that offering only 7 times in his season debut — allowing a double and triple on just 4 batted ball events. In that start against the Reds Irvin generated first pitch strikes just 52.8% of the time and his swinging strike rate sat at 6.3%. His inability to get ahead or draw whiffs resulted in a 66.7% hard-hit rate for the game — something he struggled with containing last year, as well.
Irvin’s velocity was up to begin his outing against Cincinnati but trailed off as the outing progressed. He already struggled with lineups the third time through the order in 2023, allowing his worst numbers of any time through the lineup. His numbers are also worse against left-handed pitching, as his strikeout rate plummets and his hard-hit rate allowed climbs. The Phillies possess lethal lefties atop their batting order in Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Nationals tap into their bullpen before his 3rd matchup with them. He tossed just 80 pitches across 21 total batters faced in his season debut and I don’t expect much more of a workload unless he is rolling. The Phillies’ lineup does have some strikeout issues at times, and having a high strikeout rate bat in the leadoff spot doesn’t help — but in my opinion this number is a bit too high at 5.5.
