Javan Shouey
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Due to yesterday’s Marlins and Guardians game being postponed we have a jam-packed 16-game slate to enjoy on this wonderful Saturday. With all-day action, there are plenty of angles to attack — but a play in the Mets at Giants game stands out to me.
Let’s dive in!
David Peterson (NYM) Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
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The San Francisco Giants are struggling mightily against left-handed pitching. Through the first 3 weeks of the MLB season the Giants have the 4th-most PA against southpaws. They have seen 7 left-handed starting pitchers, including Trevor Rogers — who left his start early due to injury. Of the other 6, 5 of them have surpassed this 5.5 mark — including last night, when Joey Lucchesi made his first MLB start since 2021. The left-hander pitched 7 scoreless innings with 9 strikeouts. Overall, San Francisco has the 4th-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching at 30.1%. Their wRC+ of 60 is only better than the Tigers, as is the same for their wOBA and OPS. San Francisco is dead last in contact rate on its chases and 27th in zone contact rate. The Giants’ overall contact rate of 72.9% and swinging strike rate of 12.3% are particularly worrisome against someone like Peterson.
The 27-year-old southpaw from Denver ranks 76th percentile in whiff rate so far this season, and last year he was 81st percentile. His chase rate is up so far in 2023 and in his first 4 starts he has recorded 22 strikeouts in 20.2 IP. The home-run ball and walks are his largest concerns. While the Giants have the 7th-highest BB% against right-handers, against left-handers they walk at the 7th-lowest clip. Their power numbers also plummet, as they rank just 28th in SLG and 27th in ISO. The Giants will likely stack their lineup heavily with right-handed bats. While Peterson does allow more baserunners to right-handers, his strikeout rate is still more than acceptable at 26.2% since the start of last season.
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This year his strikeout rate is actually higher against righties than lefties, albeit only through 4 starts. A large part of that shift has been his filthy changeup that he has honed over the years. He threw that offering only 16.3% of the time last season, but so far that rate is up to 22.8% overall and 30.6% against right-handed batters. He is able to generate a ton of whiffs with that pitch and his ability to have 3 strikeout pitches is crucial. Peterson should have 6 or more targets in today’s lineup and home plate umpire Chad Whitson is historically a K-friendly umpire. The left-hander has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 15 of his last 20 starts with 75 or more pitches, and he has finished between 84 and 92 pitches in every start this year.
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