Javan Shouey
Show Bio
We have just 7 MLB games on this Thursday slate, but there are some intriguing matchups on the board. From afternoon baseball in Boston to Kodai Senga’s first start against the Giants, there should be no shortage of entertainment. We’ve got our best MLB picks for each of those matchups, but my favorite MLB prop bet comes in the Angels vs Yankees game, so let’s dive in!
DraftKings Sportsbook is currently giving new customers $150 in bonus bets if they bet $5 and their team wins when they sign up. That’s all there is to it! Grab this amazing sign-up offer by clicking this link.
Angels vs Yankees first 5 innings total under 4.5 runs (-120)
Odds available at BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Also available and playable at DraftKings for -125.
With Nestor Cortes and Patrick Sandoval facing off this afternoon, I am compelled to invest in a pitchers’ duel. Both southpaws have had solid starts to their 2023 campaigns, and both are guys I was high on coming into this season.
Let’s start with Cortes. The 28-year-old was dominant at home last season as he held opponents to a .161 batting average while posting a 1.95 ERA in 15 home starts. Cortes has held the Phillies and Twins to 3 combined earned runs in his home starts so far this season. He was also exceptional in the day, posting a 1.82 ERA in 12 daytime starts last year. Los Angeles has impressive numbers against left-handed pitching so far this season. That being said, nearly all that production came against Ken Waldichuk, Patrick Corbin and Yusei Kikuchi. Those 3 names are all prime fade candidates and Cortes will be by far the best left-hander they have faced. His earned run prop was juiced overnight when given out on one available book but sits at 2.5. That is a mark he has stayed under in 26 of his last 34 starts.
Sandoval is an underrated left-hander in his own right. He pitched for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic and looked fantastic. He has a devastating slider that induces whiffs at a 31.7% clip and holds opponents to a .262 xSLG. His 4-seamer is allowing an xSLG of only .180 as well. His changeup has been hit hard but the Yankees are just 27th in run value/100 against that offering. They also struggle mightily against the slider, ranking 24th in run value/100. Sandoval has a career ground-ball rate that is 5% higher than the league average. His minuscule flyball rate will benefit him when playing in Yankee Stadium.
In his last 8 starts on the road spanning 45.2 innings pitched, Sandoval has allowed 6 combined earned runs. When his location is on point, he is very hard to beat. The Yankees have been ice-cold against left-handed pitching so far this season. Despite facing Matt Strahm, Cole Irvin, and Jose Suarez, New York ranks 25th in OPS with a wRC+ of 77 against southpaws. BallparkPal also projects Yankee Stadium for the 2nd sharpest decrease in overall run scoring on today’s slate when factoring in weather.
You can bet on this Angels vs Yankees prop bet over at Superbook, where you can sign up right now and get up to $250 as a bonus using promo code “Pickswise”! Click here to lock in on SuperBook’s great new customer offer and join the top-rated sportsbook in Vegas.
Pickswise is the home of free expert MLB Predictions every day of the season. Check out today’s MLB Best Bets now.
