Javan Shouey
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The weekend is here and that means another day involving a full slate of MLB action. There are numerous enticing games to consume on this beautiful Saturday, but one stands out among the rest for me. Let’s dive in!
San Francisco Giants / Tampa Bay Rays First 5 innings Under 4.5 runs (-135)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -140 odds, or under 4 at +100. Risking 1U.
Ryan Pepiot was sent from the Dodgers to the Rays in the offseason trade involving Tyler Glasnow, and the 26-year-old former 3rd-round pick now has a steady starting role with his new team. The right-hander utilizes a traditional 4-seam, changeup, slider 3-pitch mix with his fastball garnering over 50% usage. That offering has produced terrific results across his 90 innings pitches at the major league level, while his secondary pitches have shown potential as well — both registering 32.6% whiff rates last season. Pepiot was roughed up in his Rays debut against a tough Rangers offense, but he bounced back nicely in Coors Field last outing, striking out 11 Rockies across 6 scoreless frames. He has flashed solid quality of contact metrics the last 2 seasons, and so far this year is winning in the zone with swing-and-miss. Pepiot is fully stretched out with 94 pitches in both outings so far, and in my opinion, he draws another favorable matchup this afternoon. The Giants’ offense has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching so far this season, ranking just 27th in wOBA, 26th in hard-hit rate, and 30th in HR/FB% while posting a wRC+ of 75. The last 5 right-handed starters they have faced allowed a combined 4 earned runs, and 10 of 12 righties they have seen have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs across their entire outings against San Francisco.
Logan Webb takes the hill for San Francisco, and while he is traditionally better at home, I see value in backing him here in Tampa Bay. Active Rays batters have just 2 combined PA against Webb all-time, leaving them generally unfamiliar with his pitching style. Randy Arozarena has both of those PA vs Webb, and Logan’s arsenal is one I enjoy backing against teams that haven’t seen him often. He doesn’t overpower you with velocity, but his typically elite control and deception with his horizontal pitch mix makes him difficult to deal with. His sinker and slider move harshly in opposite directions but tunnel well out of the hand with one another, and then his changeup helps throw timing off and induce some swing-and-miss. While his underlying metrics through 3 starts this season aren’t where we are accustomed to, it’s worth noting he faced the Dodgers and then the Padres twice within close proximity. A matchup against an inconsistent and unfamiliar Tampa Bay offense could be a nice spot for the right-hander. I prefer the first 5 innings under to the full game under given the struggles of both bullpens so far this season. The under 2.5 within the first 3 innings is another solid look for slightly less juice.
