Javan Shouey
Show Bio
It’s Wednesday and we have another mega slate of MLB action to get excited for. While you can find out our experts’ MLB picks on the side and total for those matchups, I’ve combed through each game and have picked out my favorite MLB prop bet of the day. Let’s dive in and break it all down.
San Francisco Giants first 5 innings -0.5 (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
Patrick Corbin is someone I often look to bet against, and since signing with the San Francisco Giants in the offseason, Jordan Hicks has been someone I am interested in betting on. This play will allow us to do both things in one move. For Corbin, the past several seasons have been a struggle, and his 2024 campaign is not off to the smoothest start. He has allowed 4 earned runs in both starts so far, facing the Reds and Phillies. Corbin added a new cutter in the offseason, a pitch that has seen 16% usage through 2 outings, but his arsenal still lacks an elite pitch, and his slider is getting wrecked so far with a .538 AVG and .769 SLG against it.
Corbin does benefit from pitching today in a pitcher-friendly park, but he struggles especially with right-handed batters and the Giants are likely to send 7 his way. Jung Hoo Lee and Michael Conforto, who has exceptional history against Corbin, are the 2 projected lefties in today’s batting order for the Giants. It has been a frustrating start for the San Francisco offense as their new-look lineup looks to gel and become acclimatized to one another. They do project for some power against southpaw pitching this season, however, including Jorge Soler, who was among the league’s best lefty mashers last season. Corbin has an outs-recorded line of only 15.5 with an earned runs prop of 3.5. The Giants’ first 5 innings team total sits at just 2.5 which also shows value, but I want to bet on Hicks as well.
Hicks was signed in the offseason by San Francisco and quickly they shifted the hard-throwing right-hander into a starting role. The Giants were a team that used several different pitchers as openers last season, utilizing a versatile bullpen with many swingmen. This year they have transitioned back to a more traditional starting rotation, and Hicks has answered with 2 very good starts to begin his season. His Giants debut resulted in 5 shutout innings against the Padres, before he faced that same lineup again, this time tossing 7 innings with just 1 earned run surrendered. It is never easy facing the same lineup in consecutive starts, but Hicks’ expanded secondary offerings and improved command helped him succeed in a tough spot.
He has reduced his velocity this season in hopes of being someone who can cover a full season’s workload as a starter, but Hicks has still been rearing up when in crucial situations. His splitter has seen more action so far this year and has generated a 55.6% whiff rate to this point. He is keeping the ball on the ground with his fly-ball rate below 10% so far, and that will be big against a Washington lineup ranking 8th in fly-ball rate against right-handed pitching. I would rather avoid bullpens in this matchup but expect the Giants to hold a lead through 5 innings of play.
