Javan Shouey
Corey Seager has hit the IL with a hamstring injury and will be unavailable for today’s contest with the San Francisco Giants, but the Texas Rangers are still my best bet on today’s slate. Let’s dive in!
Texas Rangers F5 ML over San Francisco Giants (+105)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds. Risking 1u.
Tyler Mahle is someone I enjoyed betting on in 2021 and 2022 when the right-hander was a member of the Cincinnati Reds, but injuries have prevented him from being able to consistently pitch every 5th day in recent seasons. With just 8 starts made in the last 2 seasons the Rangers are excited to have him healthy and contributing to their starting rotation in 2025. Mahle had a rough season debut with 61 pitches across just 1.2 innings, walking 4 Red Sox batters before exiting the game. Since then, he has been sharp with just 1 earned run allowed across 4 starts spanning a combined 25 innings of work. Mahle has faced some tough lineups in that stretch with home starts against the Rays, Angels, and Dodgers, and a road start against the Cubs in Wrigley. Today Mahle will pitch in a pitcher-friendly park in San Francisco against a league average offense.
What makes me excited about how Mahle has started his season is that the underlying numbers support his success. While he won’t maintain a sub-1 ERA across an entire season’s sample, Mahle’s 2.50 FIP is still a healthy mark. I have been impressed with his ability to limit hard contact and earn whiffs in the zone, a combination that should suit him well in this ballpark today. Through San Francisco’s first 692 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, they rank 16th in wOBA and 20th in hard-hit rate. Mahle should tame their bats through the first 5 innings of Saturday’s matchup.
As for Robbie Ray, I was amped to see his new changeup this season, thinking it could help him return close to his former Cy Young form. He has not looked good at all through his first 5 starts of the year, and his changeup hasn’t been a pitch he can locate with any sort of reliable consistency. His command overall has been awful, walking 16.8% of the batters he has faced so far including 3 or more walks allowed in each start during April. Ray’s quality of contact metrics have been poor as well, ranking 16th percentile in hard-hit rate and 12th percentile in barrel rate with 5 home runs surrendered to date. Texas is without Corey Seager but still have several bats in their lineup capable of hitting southpaw pitching, and their lineup should be stacked with right-handed bats which plays into Ray’s weaker split historically. I expect a strong outing from Mahle and enough run support from his lineup for Texas to lead through the first 5 innings of play.
