Javan Shouey
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The Arizona Diamondbacks have been receiving very solid innings from Ryne Nelson since the beginning of July, while Justin Verlander is still attempting to shake off rust for Houston since returning from the injured list. I am backing Arizona through the first 5 innings of tonight’s game.
Let’s dive in to find out why!
Arizona Diamondbacks first 5 innings +0.5 (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Arizona is currently half of a game ahead of the New York Mets for the 2nd wild=card spot in the National League, and just 1.5 games ahead of Atlanta — which is currently on the outside looking in. With every game’s result being crucial down the stretch, it is likely we get Arizona’s peak focus as they look to avoid a 3-game sweep at the hands of Houston. The Astros have an ever-growing lead in the AL West as both Seattle and Texas have taken steps back this season. Both teams have played very well since the all-star break, but it has been Arizona’s offense that has been the best single unit in that span. Their lineup has been crushing either handedness of pitcher for a couple of months now, and since August 1st against right-handed pitching they rank 1st in wOBA with a 135 wRC+. That is not ideal news for Justin Verlander, who is struggling to find his form after returning to the rotation following a lengthy IL stint. Verlander has allowed 25 base runners and 11 earned runs in just 14.2 innings since returning and has yet to show his prior form. He is likely to only see 5 innings in this matchup as he has been struggling with efficiency and Arizona is known for their tough at-bats.
On the other side, Arizona has been getting the best stretch of Ryne Nelson’s career; the right-hander has been lights out since the beginning of July. His 12 starts in that span have resulted in 2 or fewer earned runs on 9 occasions, and no more than 4 earned runs in any of those outings. That type of consistency has been crucial for an Arizona staff that has lacked it from other sources. Houston has a good offense that has been in above-average form of late, but I still prefer Arizona’s form from its lineup and starting pitcher. I don’t mind taking Arizona’s first 5 innings ML at a plus-money price, but am more than happy to grab half a run and win on a tie.
