Javan Shouey
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The Cleveland Guardians are looking to hold onto their division lead and matchup today against a struggling pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays. I am looking to back their offense in this matchup through the first 5 innings, let’s dive in to find out why!
Cleveland Guardians first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+130)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +110 odds.
Taj Bradley shut down this Cleveland Guardians lineup back in July when he tossed 7 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts. The Rays’ starting pitcher is not close to his prior form, however, as the right-hander is going through the toughest stretch of his MLB career to this point. His last 8 starts have all allowed at least 3 earned runs, and he has allowed 4 or more in 6 of those outings. Among his 5 starts in August, 4 of them resulted in 5 or more earned runs allowed. Bradley has allowed 12 combined home runs in this 8-start span with at least 1 home run allowed in 7 of those 8 outings. His season-long barrel rate sits at 11.2%, a mark that ranks him in just the 5th percentile among MLB pitchers this season. He allows hard contact in the 14th percentile and his strikeout production has been less consistent in this recent stretch.
Across his last 8 starts the 23-year-old has posted an 8.27 ERA with a 6.10 FIP and 1.62 WHIP. His 21.2% strikeout rate is well below his 26.8% mark across the whole season, and he now faces a Guardians lineup that prides themselves in putting the ball into play. Cleveland does not have the most overpowering offensive unit in the sport, but they do sport a left-handed heavy lineup that can take advantage of Bradley’s weaker split. We also get their team total through the first 5 innings at a +130 price for 3 runs, and at this number I see more than enough value to continue fading Bradley’s poor form.
