Javan Shouey
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The MLB regular season is winding down and the tightly contested standings are resulting in some crucial matchups for several teams across the league. Saturday’s slate of action includes all 30 teams, and some historic rivalries. Our prop article for today focuses on the Yankees vs Red Sox and Braves vs Dodgers games. Let’s dive in!
Gerrit Cole (NYY) under 18.5 outs recorded + Chris Sale (ATL) 6+ strikeouts recorded (+111)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100 odds.
Gerrit Cole has made 14 starts this season after beginning the year on the injured list. Cole had to shake off some rust at first, allowing 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his first 7 starts including 6 earned runs allowed to the Mets twice. Since August the Yankees’ ace has been much better, however, allowing no more than 3 earned runs in any outing and surrendering just 7 combined earned runs across a 7-start span. Still, Cole has yet to pitch into the 7th inning of any start this season, and with the matchup at hand I don’t expect him to clear that mark today.
The right-hander has faced active Red Sox hitters for a combined 129 plate appearances across his career. Those plate appearances have resulted in a .971 OPS and 12 home runs for Boston. The most damage has been done by Rafael Devers, but there are numerous pieces of this lineup with experience and success against Cole. Boston has not been as hot at the plate as they were directly following the all-star break, but they are still a lineup that can do damage and work long counts. With the Yankees having several pieces of the bullpen available for this matchup, including Marcus Stroman who has been shifted to the backend unit, I see solid value in under 18.5 outs for Gerrit Cole.
Chris Sale has been outstanding for the Atlanta Braves this season after being acquired for Vaugh Grissom in the offseason. Unless Grissom develops and proves to be a long-term asset in the league, this could go down as one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory. Sale is the current betting favorite for the National League Cy Young award thanks to a 2.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 213 strikeouts to go along with his 16-3 record in 166.2 innings of work. That is the most innings Sale has seen since his first year in Boston back in 2017. In 24 of his 27 starts this season, Sale has recorded at least 6 strikeouts. That is what we are asking of him today as he faces an admittedly tough Dodgers lineup.
Los Angeles is not often a target of mine as they are capable of doing damage against any arm in the sport, but I think this is too short of a price for his alternate strikeout prop. Sale has gone more than 6 innings 13 of his starts this season, finishing that 7th frame in each of those outings. In 5 more starts he has landed exactly on 18 outs. There is a good chance he completes the 6th frame or more today and with his 1.28 K/IP I feel good about taking his alternate line in this spot. Sale is more than capable against either handedness of batter, and should find success in the strikeout department regardless of the lineup Los Angeles rolls with. Active Dodger hitters have 78 combined plate appearances against Sale with 24 strikeouts in that sample.
