Javan Shouey
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have an expensive roster that is a ton of fun to watch, but now that September is here it is winning time in Los Angeles. Nothing matters without a deep postseason run in 2024 and the team will look to build their momentum as the regular season comes to a close. Today they draw a favorable matchup for their offense, and we are backing them to score 4 or more through the first 7 innings. Let’s dive in!
Los Angeles Dodgers first 7 innings team total over 3.5 (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.
The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been rolling with 10 and 8 runs scored in the first 2 games of their series against Arizona. They have now scored at least 6 runs in 4 consecutive games and 8 of their last 10. Against right-handed pitching during the month of August they ranked 7th in wOBA with a 120 wRC+ and the 2nd highest rate of hard contact. With the crucial stakes of this series, Arizona has used their bullpen heavily so far and are likely without several pieces for the series finale. This puts pressure on Brandon Pfaadt to deliver a solid start for the Diamondbacks, but the right-hander enters play in poor form.
Pfaadt has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts including 4, 4, and 6 earned runs in his last 3 trips to the mound. The home run ball has been an issue in that span with at least 1 allowed in 5 of those 6 starts, and the Dodgers opened yesterday’s game with 3 consecutive home runs from Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. Pfaadt has faced active Dodger hitters for a combined 62 regular season PA in his brief career, allowing a .940 OPS in that sample. The right-hander, like most pitchers, struggles more and more as the game goes on and he sees the same hitters for the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. Given the heavy bullpen usage from Arizona in recent games they could extend his workload in this start. Pfaadt has allowed an .813 OPS the 3rd time through the order this season while seeing a significant drop in his K%. I expect an aggressive Dodgers lineup to be successful in this spot, and I find the plus-money price on this prop to have value.
