Javan Shouey
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Wednesday’s slate of games is jam-packed with action, featuring all 30 teams in action including 2 doubleheaders. There are plenty of games worth diving into, but my best MLB player prop bet will focus on the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also see our MLB picks for today’s big games.
Javier Assad (CHC) under 15.5 outs recorded (-129)
Odds are available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
The weather for today’s game between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs is admittedly pitcher-friendly, with wind blowing in at Wrigley Field. However, there are several reasons why I am still fading Cubs starter, Javier Assad. The right-hander has made 20 starts this season, remaining under 15.5 outs recorded in 12 contests. This includes 15 or fewer outs recorded in six of his last seven starts, and four of his last five outings have failed even to complete the fifth frame. Assad’s last start resulted in just one earned run allowed to the Cardinals, but he exited the game after four innings due to 97 pitches across just 18 batters faced. This season, Assad ranks 13th worst among qualified pitchers in pitches per plate appearance, and his inefficiency can make things difficult in tough matchups.
The Minnesota Twins have been a good offense this season, and since the all-star break ended, they sit 4th in wOBA with a 142 wRC+ against RHP. In that sample, they sport a league-best 11.8% BB%, which shows their willingness to be patient. Assad struggles to find the zone regularly and ranks just in the 20th percentile in BB% this season. His batted ball profile is lacking, ranking just 39th percentile in barrel rate and 37th percentile in xBA. Assad has a 3.19 ERA to his name through the first 98.2 innings of the year, but his 4.54 xERA, 4.57 FIP, and 4.64 SIERA suggest he has been fortunate. Even though Assad saw 97 pitches in his previous outing, that has not been the typical leash for him. On the year he averages just 87.1 pitches per start, and he didn’t surpass 81 pitches in any of his July outings. The Cubs bullpen has several available arms in relief, and given Assad’s struggles the third time through the order, we could see them accessed somewhat early.
Read our full Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs prediction
