Javan Shouey
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With the Angels only 2.5 games behind their division rival Mariners in the playoff race, and the Mariners only 2.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the final wild card spot, each and every game becomes more crucial as the season winds down. These teams have only 5 remaining games against each other this year and tonight’s game has the potential to be very entertaining. Let’s dive in!
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George Kirby (SEA) over 5.5 hits allowed (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -130 odds.
George Kirby possesses the best command of any pitcher in the sport, issuing a remarkably low 2.7% BB% that ranks 100th percentile in MLB. He does so by throwing first pitch strikes 68.9% of the time and strikes in 70.6% of his pitches overall. Those marks rank 4th and 1st among all qualified pitchers. Kirby’s 3.78 pitches per plate appearance rank 71st percentile among those qualified arms and given his 93 pitches per start on average, he typically faces over 24 batters per start. Even at just 24 batters his .252 average allowed would equate to 6 hits across that sample on average. His xBA of .261 ranks just 24th percentile and his BABIP is lower than last season despite a higher hard-hit rate that ranks just 37th percentile. If anything, Kirby’s batted ball profile signals towards even more hits allowed in his future than he has allowed so far. No team takes more swings on the first pitch than the Los Angeles Angels, setting up for an interesting matchup.
Through 21 starts, the right-hander has allowed 6 or more hits 13 separate times. This includes each of his last 8 road starts for an average of 7.38 per start. This is noteworthy as Kirby is on the road tonight in a more hitter-friendly park than his home stadium. Hitting conditions are favorable today in Anaheim with temperatures in the mid-80’s and wind blowing out. Los Angeles faced Kirby back in April with what is admittedly a far different lineup than they show now. Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Gio Urshela and Logan O’Hoppe are all out while Jake Lamb is no longer with the team. That being said, active Angel bats still have a sample of 47 PA against Kirby with only 1 walk issued but 16 hits allowed, and Kirby still allowed 9 hits in that first matchup. Ohtani has 6 of those hits in his 14 AB including a home run and a double.
Tonight’s projected lineup feature’s Ohtani along with 4 other left-handed bats. Kirby has been worse against left-handed batters this season allowing a .275 batting average and .333 wOBA. George has a 6-pitch arsenal but mainly relies upon his 4 key pitches. His 4-seam fastball leads the way with his sinker right behind it, and those 2 offerings combine for 62.9% of his pitch usage. Against right-handed 4-seamers and sinkers combined across the last 30 days the Angels rank 9th in batting average and 4th in wOBA. In those same 30 days against right-handed sliders and curveballs combined they sit 11th in average and 6th in SLG. Overall, against right-handers in this time they have the league’s 8th highest hard-hit rate, 11th best average, and 9th best wOBA.
Last night’s game between these teams saw both Reid Detmers and Luis Castillo shelled by the opposition. A combined 24 hits and 16 runs provided fans at the game with plenty of fireworks, and the Angels were able to get to Castillo for his season-worst 10 hits. For reference, Castillo had allowed just 100 hits in his first 131.1 innings this season and his xBA on the season still sits 67th percentile even after last night. With Kirby’s constant attacking of the zone, having the 2nd highest swing rate across the last 30 days is an advantage for the Angels, even if their low contact rate leads to a lot of strikeouts. Lastly, Kirby has an outs recorded prop of 17.5 with significant juice to the over. He is expected to work deep into the game and Seattle would love for that to be the case given 4 of their key relievers have each been used twice in the last 3 days. Having a walk prop of 0.5 should result in a ton of balls in play, and I expect 6 or more hits against Kirby in this matchup.
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