Javan Shouey
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Yesterday’s trade deadline provided plenty of headlines, but now those deals need to turn into wins for the aggressive teams looking to win a championship. From here on out, each game becomes more and more intense, especially with divisional battles deciding who controls the driver’s seat. Following a blowout loss yesterday to the Cubs, the Reds offense will look to lead them to victory, and they are my featured play in today’s article. Let’s dive in!
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Cincinnati Reds team total over 4.5 (-115) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
Despite losing by 11 runs yesterday, the Reds offense was not the issue. Their lineup scored 9 runs of their own but were blown out of the water thanks to poor pitching, allowing 20 runs, although some were against position players later in the game. While I do favor the Reds on the ML today, I would rather isolate their impressive lineup and focus strictly on scoring 5 or more runs. Cincinnati has scored 9, 6, and 9 runs in their last 3 games and draw a favorable matchup that they have already exposed today in Drew Smyly. Smyly has had an up-and-down season for the Cubs, essentially serving as a veteran innings-eater at this stage of his career. The veteran southpaw has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.59 SIERA and 4.78 FIP behind it. His 6.65 ERA across 5 July starts were unimpressive, and the Cubs allowed 6 or more runs in 4 of those outings.
At home this season Smyly has been at his worst, allowing a 5.94 ERA across 50 innings at home. Wrigley Field can serve as a pitcher’s park at times but is the most wind-dependent stadium in the sport, and with wind’s blowing out today there is fantastic projected hitting weather. Ballpark Pal is projecting Wrigley Field for a 10% boost in overall run scoring with a 24% boost in home run chances, projecting this game to be the 2nd most attractive game for runs on the slate. With a total of 10, bookmakers seem to align with that idea. The Reds are able to attack Smyly with a number of different lineups given he has struggled against either handedness this season. Right-handed batters have a .749 OPS, .208 ISO, .334 wOBA and 15 home runs, but left-handers have been even better. Southpaw bats have a .922 OPS, .222 ISO, and .394 wOBA across their 101 PA so far.
In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching, the Reds rank 8th in hard-hit rate, 8th in BB%, 9th in AVG, and have a respectable 106 wRC+. Their speed creates havoc on the bases and while their power numbers haven’t popped lately, they have plenty of it in their order. Even if Smyly pitches decently, the Cubs bullpen is also exposable. They rank just 20th in both K-BB% and FIP across the last 30 days while allowing the 8th highest hard-hit rate. With all 9 innings to bat the pricing on this team total seemed too cheap, and I will gladly back the Reds to score 5 or more runs in this matchup.
Check out our expert’s MLB best bets for today
Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) over 5.5 strikeouts (-120) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.
Eduardo Rodriguez declining a trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday was perhaps the most perplexing move of the day given Detroit is not going to participate in the playoffs while Los Angeles has a true shot at a championship. Nonetheless, one must respect a decision to stay closer to family, and apparently that was his main deciding factor. Since he has remained a Tiger and not been moved, Rodriguez will make his scheduled start today against the Pittsburgh Pirates. E-Rod has been productive this year, hence why so many teams were clamoring for his services. The veteran southpaw has generated a 2.95 ERA across 88.1 IP with a 3.17 FIP and 3.73 SIERA to support his success. Rodriguez throws first pitch strikes 64.5% of the time and then draws chases outside the zone 29.9% of the time, a 65th percentile ranking. He rarely issues free passes, ranking 84th percentile in BB%, and as a result is efficient with his pitch count more often than not. His batted ball profile is desirable with a 69th percentile barrel rate and 81st percentile hard-hit rate. After a down strikeout season last year, his K% is back up to 25.9%, nearly in line with his 2021 mark.
Rodriguez generates his strikeouts via a number of different offerings. The lefty utilizes a 5-pitch mix with his 4-seamer leading the way at 42.8% usage. That offering has a 23.7% whiff rate and 23.0% put away rate, both very solid marks for a 4-seam fastball. His location of this pitch makes him for his below-average velocity, and his movement on his pitches play very well together, resulting in a high rate of called strikes. His 35 strikeouts via a looking 3rd strike rank 12th most in the sport, and the Pirates are tied for the 4th most looking strikeouts as a team this season. Overall, in the last 30 days against southpaw pitching, Pittsburgh ranks dead last in wOBA at .257 while their wRC+ of 57 is also a league-worst marking. They have struck out in 26.1% of their PA during this stretch while allowing the 7th highest CSW%.
E-Rod has a long leash, averaging 93.7 pitches per start made this season. After a slow start with only 9 Ks in his first 16 IP this season, Rodriguez has racked up 1.13 K/IP in his last 72.1 IP. In that span he has recorded the necessary 6 or more strikeouts in 9 of 12 starts. He fell under this mark in his last start, but I believe that is the reasoning behing this playable price. He generated just a 7.8% swinging strike rate in that last outing but had posted a 10.1% or better mark in each of the previous 5 outings, and 7 of his last 8. Ke’Bryan Hayes return to the lineup adds a K-averse bat, but there are still plenty of targets in this order. I am willing to bet that his down game was an outlier in the strikeout department, and against a youthful and free-swinging lineup like the Pirates, I expect 6 or more punch outs.
Don’t forget to check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for Wednesday!
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Baltimore Orioles team total over 3.5 (-135) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.
We took this same prop at a more expensive price yesterday and the Orioles scored 13 runs to win by a 13-3 final score. They made things tough on left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu who made his season debut, tossing 5 innings while allowing 9 hits and 4 earned runs. New acquisitions from the Cardinals, Genesis Cabrera and Jordan Hicks, allowed 3 and 2 earned runs in their respective innings, while Nate Pearson allowed 3 walks and 4 earned runs during his frame. That performance dropped Toronto to 21st in ERA and 23rd in WHIP across the last 2 weeks. Jordan Romano and Jay Jackson remain out tonight while Pearson and Cabrera are likely unavailable with their recent workload.
Yusei Kikuchi will start the game for Toronto today, making his 22nd start of the year. The left-hander has improved from last season when he was sent to the bullpen, but he is still an arm that can be exposed. Despite a recent uptick in strikeout production, with 8 strikeouts in back-to-back games and 6 or more in 6 of his last 8, this is a tough matchup for Yusei. Kikuchi is heavily dependent on his 4-seam fastball, utilizing that pitch 44.6% of the time overall. The Orioles are an excellent 4-seam fastball hitting team against left-handed pitching, ranking 6th in both SLG and wOBA while striking out at the 8th lowest rate. On the season, Kikuchi has allowed just a .232 xBA against that pitch while generating 40 of his 116 strikeouts. In his 2 starts against Baltimore this season, he has thrown 77 4-seamers while generating only 2 strikeouts and allowing 5 hits on 13 batted ball events. Yusei also relies heavily on his slider for strikeout production. Baltimore is 7th in wOBA, 8th in SLG, and have the 7th lowest K% against left-handed sliders this year.
The Orioles are the league’s best team in terms of having a split advantage with their ability to stack either all left-handed bats, or all right-handed bats, and still field a quality lineup regardless. This can be attributed to having multiple switch-hitters, which also helps in the later stages of the game, and depth that other teams simply don’t have. I expect a somewhat balanced lineup for their standards today, however, as Kikuchi can be hit from either side of the plate. Overall, he ranks just 27th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. His poor batted ball profile has resulted in 22 home runs allowed, the 8th most in MLB. The Orioles have scored 4 or more runs in 17 of their last 24 games including 6 of the last 7 games started by left-handers. On the road against left-handed pitching this season Baltimore ranks 3rd in wOBA, 1st in SLG, ad have a wRC+ of 126. They score the 2nd most runs per game on the road at 5.43 per contest and getting the guaranteed 9 innings to bat could prove huge in the end. Look for Baltimore to keep rolling offensively.
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