Javan Shouey
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Saturday’s slate of MLB games is packed full of interesting matchups, but rain could play a major factor in several of the games. Included among those possible games is the matchup between the Yankees and Tigers. Keider Montero is set to start for Detroit and I am looking to fade his outs prop. Let’s dive in!
Keider Montero (DET) under 16.5 outs recorded (-144)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that price.
Keider Montero has made 10 starts for the Detroit Tigers this season, remaining under 16.t outs recorded in exactly half of those outings. The right-hander has an underwhelming strikeout profile including a 24th percentile whiff rate and 10th percentile chase rate, and his inability to generate chases could be harmful for his efficiency in today’s matchup. New York has been one of baseball’s more patient offenses this season and since the all-star break they have both the lowest swing rate and lowest chase rate. To beat the Yankees, you must execute within the zone, and I don’t trust Montero’s stuff enough to succeed in this spot.
The 24-year-old ranks 4th percentile in xBA so far this season while profiling as a fly ball pitcher. New York loves to grind out long at-bats and they have done a good job all season of knocking opposing starters out of the game early. Montero has not been overly worked in terms of pitch count, seeing no more than 88 pitches thrown in any of his August outings. His season-high was 96 pitches last month, but that was a game he lasted just 15 outs. With Detroit having available bullpen arms in relief, and rain playing a potential role in this game, I lean heavily towards the under on Montero’s outs recorded prop.
