Javan Shouey
Show Bio
Sunday’s slate of MLB action includes all 30 teams as always, and there are several matchups that could end up being the best game of the day. From a betting perspective I am going to target an undervalued offense that is in an advantageous matchup. Let’s discuss the matchup between the San Diego Padres and Ryne Nelson!
San Diego Padres first 7 innings team total over 3.5 (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds. Risking 1u.
The San Diego Padres are still without Fernando Tatis Jr. who exited their game on June 21 when he was hit by a pitch. Still, this Padres lineup has been performing extremely well since his absence began, especially against right-handed pitching. Since June 21 the Padres rank 5th in wOBA with a 127 wRC+ against right-handers, and they profile extremely well for today’s matchup in my opinion. San Diego is an aggressive team offensively, recording the league’s 6th highest swing rate with the 2nd highest zone contact rate since the Tatis Jr. injury. In that span they have the lowest BB% the 2nd lowest K% against righties which is leading to a ton of balls in play. A matchup against Ryne Nelson should continue that trend.
Nelson ranks 79th percentile with his low 5.8% walk rate, as his zone rate sits 5% higher than league average and ranks 7th highest among qualified pitchers. He pounds the zone with regularity but doesn’t have the stuff to consistency succeed with that approach. His low 18.2% whiff rate ranks just 5th percentile and with a batted ball profile including a 22nd percentile hard-hit rate and 19th percentile barrel rate, Nelson often runs into trouble against quality lineups. His xBA of .293 sits just 5th percentile and his struggles have been evident against either handedness of batter. Overall, Nelson has posted a 4.97 xERA and 4.64 xFIP, and he now draws a matchup he has performed poorly in already twice this season.
San Diego has scored 10 runs off Nelson in 8.1 combined innings of work this season thanks to the right-hander allowing 14 hits including 2 home runs. He even walked 4 batters in the most recent matchup which was uncommon for the Diamondbacks starter. Despite Tatis Jr. being out, active San Diego hitters still have 90 combined PA against Nelson with an .826 OPS to show for it. Even though Nelson has his out recorded line set at 15.5, his strikeout prop remains at just 2.5. There should be plenty of chances for San Diego to produce off Nelson, especially considering the taxed Diamondbacks bullpen could lead to an extended workload for the right-hander. Arizona used 6 relievers yesterday and could have multiple pitchers unavailable for this contest. This could lead to Nelson seeing more batters the 3rd time through the order, and Nelson has allowed a 1.091 OPS to 70 TBF the 3rd time through this season. Diamondbacks relievers also have the league’s worst FIP and 2nd worst ERA across the last 30 days so even if Nelson exits early, I like our chances.
