Javan Shouey
Show Bio
As the MLB trade deadline approaches each game is played with more intensity and today’s slate of games should provide plenty of entertainment for MLB fans. Taj Bradley vs Hunter Brown highlights a slate of interesting matchups, but my featured play today comes in the late game between the Dodgers and Reds.
Remember you can read our game picks for all of Saturday’s slate in our MLB predictions. Let’s dive in!
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Emmet Sheehan (Dodgers) under 5.5 strikeouts (-140) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.
Emmet Sheehan, the Dodgers’ 6th-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft, will make his 7th start of the year in his age-23 season. After 0, 2, and 3 earned runs allowed in his first 3 outings, the young right-hander has struggled. His last 3 starts have combined for a 12.41 ERA with 17 earned runs across 12.1 IP. Control of the zone has been a glaring concern for the Dodgers’ 6th-ranked prospect, issuing 5, 3 and 5 walks in his last 3 starts with only 10 strikeouts combined in those outings. Through 6 starts Sheehan has registered a first-pitch strike rate of only 50.4%, sitting well below the league-average mark of 60.8%. He struggles to catch up in counts with a 43rd-percentile chase rate and a chase contact rate 4.2% higher than the league average. His 21.2% whiff rate sits in just the 17th percentile and overall his profile has resulted in a 4.7% K-BB%.
Sheehan has failed to record 6 strikeouts in a game this season and has reached 5 strikeouts in just 1 of his 6 outings. With an average of 88 pitches per start and more than 90 just once, the Dodgers are not looking to overextend their young arm, especially considering he has already pitched his most innings in a season both in the pros and in college. Last night another top pitching prospect in the system, Bobby Miller, pitched very well after a rough 1st inning. He finished with 6 strikeouts across 100 pitches spanning 5 innings of work while allowing 3 earned runs to this Reds offense. All 6 of Miller’s strikeouts were via his curveball, but Sheehan doesn’t have that offering in his arsenal. Sheehan is a 4-seam fastball-heavy pitcher with 64.2% usage on it. His 95.5 mph average speed is an 80th-percentile mark, and he has good extension as well which helps it play even faster in the batter’s eye. Despite these plus features, his 4-seamer has struggled to generate swings-and-misses with a 15.9% whiff rate and 7.3% put-away rate. Overall, Sheehan ranks in just the 28th percentile with his 9.5% swinging strike rate, and his inability to generate looking strikes has resulted in a 22.4% CSW%, a 4th-percentile mark.
The Reds do strike out, and the transition from the bottom of the order to Elly De La Cruz at the top can be troublesome for a strikeout under, but they seem to be getting inflated lines against them lately. Even in the last 30 days alone the Reds rank 15th in contact rate, chase at the 2nd-lowest rate, and have the 9th-lowest swinging strike rate. Sheehan’s best chance for strikeouts tonight would be to lean heavily on his changeup, but even then, that is a pitch he used only against LHB. The Dodgers bullpen is fresh with 2 arms having been unused for 3 days, 2 more unused for 2 days, and 3 more with only 1 appearance in the past 3 days. With this availability they shouldn’t need to push him more than usual. Home-plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt is also relatively K-averse, which adds some extra value.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) over 4.5 hits allowed (-135) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at Caesars and DraftKings sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds.
Brandon Pfaadt is a highly touted prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks farm system but has yet to live up to the billing at the major league level. The 24-year-old right-hander had great strikeout stuff in the minor leagues and showed an ability to be a workhorse last season with 167 innings across 2 levels. His AAA performance was less inspiring this season, with sharp increases to his ERA and FIP, but he still has earned numerous call-ups to the Diamondbacks. In 7 MLB starts the right-hander has been shelled, allowing an 8.81 ERA with a 7.64 FIP and 4.94 SIERA. His batted-ball profile is rather undesirable, ranking 4th percentile or worse in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and xSLG while sitting in the 9th percentile in xBA. That xBA has resulted in 6 or more hits in 5 of his 7 starts, and tonight we only need 5 to win this bet. The home-run ball is a glaring concern with 12 long balls surrendered in under 32 innings of work at this level, and 3 in his last start against the Reds. While his HR/FB% is at an unsustainable level, he has allowed at least 1 home run and 3 earned runs in 6 of his 7 starts, granted not consecutive outings as he was sent down between those starts.
Pfaadt relies on his 4-seam fastball 52.3% of the time despite a .348 AVG and 6 home runs against it. This is a tough matchup to have a struggling 4-seamer in, as the Mariners in the last 30 days against right-handed 4-seamers (a sample of 233 PA, the 6th most in that span) rank 5th in AVG and 4th in wOBA. His changeup has also been crushed with a .412 AVG against it across 14 batted ball events. Against right-handed pitching in general during that span the Mariners have a 118 wRC+ and the 4th highest hard-hit rate. Of the last 25 right-handed starting pitchers to face Seattle, 19 have allowed 5 or more hits including Kevin Gausman, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda in the last week alone. Batters from either side have found tremendous success against Pfaadt this season with lefties hitting .338 and righties hitting .290. With Pfaadt seeing 6 innings and 89 pitches in his last start, the workload should be there, and I like the Mariners to record 5 or more hits off of him at this price.
Luke Weaver (CIN) 5+ hits allowed / Los Angeles Dodgers 4+ runs scored (-120) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at BetMGM and DraftKings sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
Luke Weaver continues to get starts despite poor performance due to the Reds having a severe need for innings as a team. The 29-year-old right-hander has posted a 7.20 ERA this season with a 5.99 FIP and 4.89 SIERA both serving as career-worst marks. Weaver uses a 4-pitch mix with his 4-seam fastball receiving 45.0% usage. His changeup (22.8%), cutter (17.3%), and curveball (13.8%) make up the rest of his arsenal. The 4-seamer has been crushed with a .349 opponent average and .433 wOBA while his cutter has allowed a .357 AVG and .441 wOBA. Los Angeles, his opponent tonight, rank 6th in AVG and 4th in wOBA against the combination of right-handed 4-seamers and cutters in the last 30 days. The Dodgers also rank 3rd in wOBA against right-handed curveballs in that span, and despite a .205 AVG against his curveballs this season, Weaver has an xBA of .303 against that pitch with an arsenal high .464 xwOBA. His changeup is due for positive regression in his favor, but still allows a .303 AVG, and the Dodgers rank 3rd in AVG and 4th in wOVA against right-handed changeups in the last 30 days.
Weaver has allowed 5 or more hits in 13 of his 17 starts this season with 6 or more surrendered in 12 of them. That includes 8 hits in his last outing against Arizona, and 6 hits against the Dodgers in their first matchup this season. The Dodgers scored 7 earned runs off Weaver in his 3.2 innings of work before he handed the ball off to the bullpen. The Reds actually won that game 9-8, but we only need 5 hits and 4 runs, and that occurred in the 4th inning of that game. Weaver has allowed 4 or more runs on his own in 11 of his 17 starts while giving up 3 earned on his own 14 times. With a 43.1% hard-hit rate, 4th percentile xBA, 3rd percentile xSLG, and 7th percentile barrel rate, Weaver’s batted ball profile is among the worst in the sport. His 17.7% K% ranks just 15th percentile and results in a ton of balls in play which is ideal for this wager. He struggles against either handedness as well, with righties hitting .343 and lefties hitting .291.
Weaver’s workload has been low of late, but that has due to performance. Ideally, they would like him to throw around 85 pitches or 5 innings. Even if Weaver allows 5 hits but less than 4 runs, Los Angeles should be able to find runs in the later stages of the game. The Reds bullpen ranks 13th in ERA across the last 30 days but are due for regression, ranking 23rd in both FIP and K-BB% while generating the 3rd lowest ground ball rate. The Dodgers offense is lethal, hitting .281 against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, the 2nd best mark in MLB. They sit first with a .372 wOBA and 136 wRC+ in that span as well. Active Dodger bats have a .287 AVG against him across 108 AB as well. With favorable hitting conditions in Los Angeles, I love this play.
Check out today’s YRFI/NFI Best Bets and our Rays vs Astros Same Game Parlay
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