Javan Shouey
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It has been a disappointing season for the Toronto Blue Jays, who could become sellers at the upcoming trade deadline, but there is hope that they can develop their young players as they move towards the future. One of those players who has potential is Yariel Rodriguez, the 27-year-old right-hander they signed this offseason. Yariel draws an intriguing matchup today and I am seeing some value on his strikeout prop. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB player prop bet, while you can also find out our MLB picks for Wednesday’s games!
Yariel Rodriguez (TOR) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook and Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
Yariel Rodriguez is a Cuban-born pitcher who has spent the majority of his professional career pitching in his home country as well as Japan. Now at 27 years old, Rodriguez has been pitching professionally for nearly a decade, yet his status in this league is that of a rookie. The right-hander began his MLB tenure with solid but brief outings against the Rockies and Padres, racking up 13 strikeouts with only 2 earned runs allowed in those 7.2 innings of work. His next 2 starts were against a low-whiff rate Royals lineup, earning just 3 strikeouts in that 7.2-inning span. He hit the injured list with back soreness following those outings before returning with a lackluster start against Cleveland. Rodriguez bounced back well by tossing a career-high 6.2 innings against a tough Astros lineup on July 1, recording 6 punchouts against a low-strikeout lineup. He tossed 6 more frames on the road against Seattle in his next start before 4 innings of 2-run ball against Arizona in his most recent outing. With 6 and 7 strikeouts in those respective starts, Rodrguez has now soared past this 4.5 line in 3 consecutive outings, and 4 of his 5 starts with at least 80 pitches thrown.
Those last 3 starts for Rodriguez saw similar workloads, as the right-hander tossed 83, 82, and 82 pitches while facing 23, 20 and 19 batters. While I would like to see a heavier workload in terms of batters faced, Rodriguez is still more than capable of clearing this mark with the leash he has received. He uses 5 pitches at least 8% of the time, but his slider has been his best strikeout weapon so far this season with half of his punchouts coming on that offering alone. His slider is generating a healthy 34.4% whiff rate, and it is a pitch he is comfortable using against either handedness of batter. Rodriguez is striking out right-handed batters 4.5% more than left-handers in his limited sample size, but his diverse repertoire should play well against the lefty bats of Tampa Bay today as well.
The Rays have been whiff-happy against right-handed pitching this season, posting the league’s 9th-highest K% at 23.9% for the season. Since June 1, that rate jumps to 24.3%, and each of the last 4 right-handed starters to face Tampa Bay have cleared this mark. While the Rays do possess the 2nd-highest average of pitches seen per plate appearance, that leads to a ton of 2-strike counts, and the Rays’ plate discipline can lack in those situations. Since June 1, Tampa Bay has the 12th-highest chase rate and when swinging in the zone they connect at the 6th-lowest rate. Only Isaac Paredes is truly tough to strike out, and even he is a right-handed hitter which plays into Rodriguez’ better split. Sharper books like FanDuel have already bumped his strikeout prop to 5.5 and we could see continued movement on this line throughout the day.
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