Javan Shouey
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With a full slate of MLB action on this beautiful Sunday there are numerous angles for bettors to take. My favorite angle for today is backing the Mets lineup against left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers and the Miami Marlins. Let’s dive in!
New York Mets first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings and ESPN sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
Two things I have done often this season have been betting against Trevor Rogers, and betting on the New York Mets offense when they face southpaw pitching. Today I will look to combine both of those into one play, isolating New York’s batters through the first 5 innings in this game. Rogers has an outs recorded prop of 15.5 with -135 juice towards the under, and an earned runs allowed prop of 2.5 with a similar price to the over. Getting the Mets first 5 inning team total at even money seems advantageous for us with those factors considered.
On the season Rogers has allowed a 4.72 ERA with a 4.48 FIP behind it. The combination of his poor command, low whiff rates, and his propensity to allow hard contact results in some tough trips to the mound. Rogers is someone that struggles to get ahead in counts, often falling behind to where the opposition has the advantage. His low chase rates induced result in hitter-friendly counts, and that is a bad recipe against a patient and lethal Mets lineup. new York has been mashing southpaw pitching all season long, ranking 2nd in wOBA with a 124 wRC+ against left-handers across the entire season’s sample. Since June 1 their success has continued with a significant spike in their wOBA, and a 158 wRC+ in that sample of 469 plate appearances.
New York has the ability to stack their lineup against Rogers’ weaker split, and they have done so with 8 right-handed batters in the order. Brandon Nimmo is the only left-handed batter in their lineup today, but he is one of the sports hottest bats at the moment and he has had success in his 17 head-to-head plate appearances against Rogers. Francisco Alvarez is getting the day off for New York, but with the rest of the main guys in the lineup this is a spot I am more than intrigued by. I expect the Mets to get to Rogers early on in this game, and clear this team total within the first 5 innings of play.
