Javan Shouey
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Today marks the final day before the 2024 MLB all-star break, and thus all 30 teams are in action this Sunday. Several teams will look to maximize the availability of their bullpens while others will look to continue momentum for their ace-level starters. There are several intriguing matchups from an entertainment perspective, but from a betting viewpoint there are a couple angles showing solid value in tandem.
Let’s dive in!
Chris Paddack (MIN) Under 15.5 outs recorded + New York Mets Over 2.5 runs scored (+102)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds. 1u.
Chris Paddack has struggled with injuries for the past several seasons, making just 5 starts and 8 appearances in both 2022 and 2023 combined. He hasn’t pitched more than 108.1 innings since his rookie season in 2019, and after 78.1 innings this season he needed rest with arm fatigue. We see dominant pitchers battle back from Tommy John surgery more and more often these days, but it is still a very tough injury from which to recover. Paddack was only averaging 86.1 pitches per start before hitting the injured list, and in his return to the rotation last week he saw just 78 pitches and 19 batters faced. Minnesota has playoff hopes and they would like Paddack to be a piece of their depth when they get there. With a rested bullpen that is performing extremely well this season, and an extended break starting tomorrow with the all-star break, this seems like an opportune spot to limit Paddack’s workload.
The Twins bullpen is 4th in both ERA and FIP across the last 30 days of play, and across the entire season’s sample they sit 9th in ERA and 6th in FIP. Minnesota’s bullpen had a day off Thursday and no arm has thrown more than once in the last 3 days, leaving everyone available for a game they would love to win. At 54-41 the Twins sit 4.5 games behind Cleveland for the division lead, and 1.5 games ahead of Boston for the 2nd Wild Card spot. Each game is crucial for the final standings, and I expect all hands-on deck from a managerial perspective. Paddack has been held under this 15.5 mark in 9 of his 16 starts so far this season including 5 of 7 road outings. He does live in the zone often, throwing strikes at an above average rate while limiting free passes, but the Giants are a patient lineup. In the last 30 days San Francisco has the 5th-lowest swing rate and 7th lowest chase rate, and against right-handed pitching in that span they have the 9th highest walk rate. On the season the Giants have MLB’s 7th highest average of pitches per plate appearance. When they do swing, they should find success today as Paddack’s batted ball profile is not impressive. The right-hander has allowed a 42.8% hard-hit rate and 9.7%-barrel rate, struggling to keep the ball on the ground with just a 33rd percentile GB%.
As for the Mets’ portion of the play, no team has been hitting right-handed pitching better across the last 30 days of play. In that span they sit 1st in both wOBA and SLG while striking out at the 9th lowest rate and walking at the 6th highest percentage. Their 137 wRC+ paces MLB in that span while their hard-hit rate ranks 2nd behind Atlanta. Today they get to face German Marquez who makes his return to the majors after missing over a year of action. The former ace of the Rockies hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since April 26 of last season after needing Tommy John surgery. Marquez obviously suffers statistically from pitching his home games in Coors Field, but he is still a pitcher that has allowed a ton of hard contact throughout his career. This is the case with a lot of ground-ball pitchers, but New York has the 6th-highest fly-ball rate against right-handers in the last 30 days.
Marquez pitched one game on May 10, but sat out over a month before making his next appearance on June 12. He has made appearances 6 straight turns through a rotation, but only one of those were against AAA competition. In that performance he allowed 4 earned runs and recorded 2 outs against the Salt Lake Bees. He was sent to AA for his last 2 outings, allowing 3 earned runs in 5 innings during his final rehab start. His 73 pitches in that final start were his most of the season, and we should expect right around that number again today if he pitches well enough to get there. Marquez may very well have rust in his return to the majors, but even if he pitches well a limited workload gives us opportunities against the weak Rockies bullpen.
Colorado relievers have the league’s worst ERA and 2nd worst FIP this season, recording a 1.61 WHIP and league-low 7.3% K-BB%. They allow the 3rd highest rate of hard contact as well. When isolating their performance to the last 30 days, Colorado still ranks 6th or worse in each of those metrics. Only 2 of the Colorado relievers are left-handed which should result in plenty of chances for the Mets to continue mashing righties, but even if Ty Blach or Jalen Beeks enter the game, New York has been very good against lefties too. In the last 30 days the Mets sit 4th in wOBA with a 143 wRC+ against southpaw pitching, and for the entire season they have the 3rd highest wOBA with a 125 wRC+. With temperatures in the low-90’s and wind blowing slightly out, I like New York to continue their hot hitting and get us at least 3 runs in this spot.
