Javan Shouey
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Wednesday’s slate of MLB games features 17 matchups thanks to doubleheaders with Twins vs White Sox and Royals vs Cardinals. With so many games set to take place, there are several betting angles worth approaching. I am combining angles from 2 different games to generate a nice price for today’s best MLB player prop bet. Our experts are on a HUGE 14-5 run with their MLB player prop picks, so let’s keep the good times rolling! Let’s dive in, but make sure you also see our MLB picks for today’s action.
Framber Valdez (HOU) Over 17.5 outs recorded + Patrick Corbin (WAS) Over 5.5 hits allowed (+139)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +120 odds. Risking 1u.
Framber Valdez has had a down season when comparing his performance to prior seasons, but the southpaw sinker baller draws an enticing matchup today against the Miami Marlins. Miami has been baseball’s worst team against left-handed pitching this season, ranking dead last in wOBA with a 69 wRC+ in 1068 PA. When isolating their performance against left-handers in the last 30 days, the Marlins sit 27th in wOBA with a 76 wRC+.
Parts of their struggles include a non-existent walk rate thanks to overly aggressive approaches from several pieces of their lineup. Miami swings at the league’s highest rate across the last 30 days, including the highest swing rate on pitches located outside of the strike zone. They still make contact at an above-average rate, and the result of their contact made on these poorly located offerings has resulted in a ton of ground balls and soft contact. Miami has the 3rd-highest groundball rate and 10th-highest soft-contact rate through the last 30 days against left-handers.
Valdez has still completed 6 or more innings of work in 9 of 15 starts including 8 of his last 11 this season. That includes 5 times in those last 11 outings where Framber pitched into the 7th frame. On the season the southpaw has registered the 2nd-lowest number of pitches per plate appearance among all qualified pitchers. His 3.55 mark combined with his 98th percentile groundball rate should allow him to pitch deeply into this game, especially considering the tendencies of the Marlins’ offensive unit. Even in Valdez’s last start when he allowed 3 earned runs and 11 total base runners, he still completed 18 outs in just 90 pitches. Valdez has been extended past 100 pitches on numerous occasions and if pitching well we should expect a heavy workload.
As for Patrick Corbin, the struggling left-hander draws a familiar matchup against a Mets lineup that has hurt him both this season and in the past. In 240 combined PA from active Mets batters against Corbin, they have combined to produce a .312 BA and .926 OPS. This includes their first matchup this season where Corbin allowed 6 earned runs on 7 hits, 3 of which left the park. There are several Mets who have tremendous numbers against Corbin, and New York enters this matchup in good form offensively.
Against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days, the Mets rank 5th in wOBA with a 136 wRC+. Their BB% in that span sits at just 6.8%, the 7th-lowest mark, as they are instead putting the ball in play with regularity. When teams put the ball in play against Patrick Corbin, good things tend to happen for the offense. Corbin ranks in the 2nd percentile with his 48.5% hard-hit rate allowed, and that rate of hard contact has resulted in a 1st percentile xBA. On the year he has allowed 6 or more hits in 13 of his 18 starts, allowing a hit every 13.63 pitches thrown. With the recent form and the overall familiarity of this Mets lineup, 6 or more hits should be highly attainable.
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