Javan Shouey
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Today’s slate is absolutely filled with games worth watching and betting on. The Cubs and Cardinals have returned from London to begin new series against the Phillies and Astros respectively. Aces such as Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, Framber Valdez, and Joe Ryan are all taking the mound for their ball clubs. My attention is focused on the game in Chicago, however. Let’s dive in!
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Jameson Taillon (CHC) over 4.5 hits allowed (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
When the Phillies lineup came out with no J.T. Realmuto the price on this prop fell from -145 to -130 odds. I am fine with Realmuto being out, however, and with the rest of the key bats for Philadelphia being active this price is one I like. The Phillies will start 6 left-handed batters tonight including Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Bryson Stott. While Schwarber is more of a threat to draw a walk than hit a single, he is more than capable of an extra-base hit against Taillon’s 11th percentile barrel rate. In Taillon’s last 3 starts alone he has allowed 8 barreled balls with 5 of them leaving the park. Against left-handed batters this season Taillon has allowed a .311 average, .321 ISO, and .443 wOBA. Right-handed batters are still hitting .282 off him so for the sake of this prop really anyone in the Phillies order is viable.
Taillon has allowed 5 or more hits in 9 of his 12 starts this season and 9 of 10 when not facing a stringent pitch count limit. That was the case in his first start of the season (63 pitches across 4 innings), and his start against Washington on May 4 following his IL stint (42 pitches across 3 innings.) If anything, Taillon should have a longer leash tonight given the London series added 2 days of rest to the 3 members of the rotation who didn’t pitch overseas. With 64 hits allowed in only 53.2 IP this season, we should really only need 5 innings from him to reach this mark. With an outs recorded prop of 16.5 Taillon is expected to work into the 6th inning tonight.
The right-hander uses 5different pitches at least 13.5% of the time this season. Not having a go-to pitch has actually been a struggle for him, however, and all 5 pitches have been hit as a result. The lowest batting average against any of those pitches is the .265 mark against his curveball. That pitch has still allowed 9 hits this season with each of the other 4 allowing at least 11. Philadelphia has a .254 average against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Among the last 14 right-handed starting pitchers to face the Phillies, 11 have allowed 5 or more hits with 6 or more in 7 of them. Philadelphia has already seen Taillon this season as well, racking up 6 hits and scoring 8 runs against him in under 3 innings of work.
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