Javan Shouey
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Wednesday’s slate of MLB action features all 30 teams in play and numerous enticing matchups from both a betting and entertainment perspective. Thanks to a postponed game between the Cardinals and Braves yesterday, there are actually 16 games on tap with those squads performing a doubleheader. For today’s best MLB player prop bets, we will head to Arizona as we look to fade Ryne Nelson and back the hot Twins bats. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB prop bet, while you can also find out all of our MLB picks for the games on Wednesday, June 26.
Minnesota Twins first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds. Risking 1u.
Ryne Nelson is not a pitcher I have been fond of during his time in MLB, as the right-hander has struggled to find consistency through his first 45 outings, 42 of which have been starts. Last season, Nelson struggled mightily in his home park, posting an 8.25 ERA, .356 AVG, .434 wOBA, and 6.18 FIP during 55.2 innings of work. Through his first 6 home starts this season, spanning a combined 31.1 innings, Nelson has once again struggled with a 5.74 ERA. Overall, Nelson is not an overpowering arm, ranking in just the 8th percentile this season in strikeout rate. While he does a good job of limiting walks, the Diamondbacks starter has allowed far too much hard contact, ranking in the 20th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and barrel rate. His 6th percentile xBA has resulted in a 1.51 WHIP and that type of base traffic is worrisome against a hot lineup like Minnesota’s.
The Twins have won 10 of their last 15 games, and much of that has to do with the form of their lineup. When isolating the Twins’ performance against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days of play, Minnesota ranks 4th in wOBA, 10th in hard-hit rate, 2nd in FB% and they have the 4th-lowest K% in that span at 18.5%. Their 125 wRC+ during that sample is a healthy mark, and they are getting major contributions from several sources in their batting order.
The Twins have always had talent, but keeping their premier bats on the field and getting them to play at the same time has been the struggle. Currently Minnesota has both Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis active and mashing, and Carlos Correa has bounced back wonderfully this season with an average just short of .300. Ryan Jeffers has been one of the best hitting catchers in the sport this year, and contributions from Carlos Santana and Jose Miranda have both been crucial for the depth of their order. Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler and Willi Castro could all be huge in this spot as well, given they bat from the left side and Nelson has struggled with lefty batters this season. Given the form of both the Minnesota lineup and the Diamondbacks’ pitcher, and the reasonable price of +100, the Twins scoring 3 or more runs within the first 5 innings is my favorite bet of the day.
Now find out our MLB parlay picks for today’s games at +795 odds!
