Javan Shouey
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Yesterday gave us 12 runs in the London game, and 6 1-run games including an extra-inning Sunday night game between the Astros and Dodgers. While topping that entertainment level today with only 6 games on the slate may be tough, I have still found value in the betting markets. Let’s dive in, and make sure to check out all of our MLB predictions for Monday.
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Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
The Texas Rangers offense fell flat against the Yankees this weekend, totaling 7 runs across their 3-game series including being shut out on Saturday. They now return home to the place they have been most lethal and get a matchup against a left-handed pitcher they have already beaten this season. While Texas is a dangerous offense against either handedness, they have preferred to face left-handed pitching over the course of the season. They have a lineup stocked full of lefty mashers, and all 9 batters in tonight’s projected lineup have a league average or better wOBA against southpaw pitching. The lowest wOBA vs LHP from that projected lineup is Nathaniel Lowe at .315.
Matthew Boyd, the pitcher to face Texas today, is admittedly not a horrible pitcher. The 32-year-old is able to generate enough swing-and-miss in his game to remain competitive. His 5.37 ERA is due for positive regression given his lower FIP and xERA, but there are still aspects of his game worth picking on, especially with elite lineups. Boyd allows a 30.7% fly ball rate which is 7.4% higher than league average. Of his 16 barrels allowed this season, 6 of them have come in the last 3 games. Texas saw him pretty well in the first matchup, posting a 90.9% zone contact rate against him – the 3rd highest mark allowed in his 14 starts. They were unable to convert their base runners in the first 4 innings before scoring 3 in that 5th frame and 2 more in the 6th inning. That coincides with Boyd’s struggles the 3rd time through the order, as he has allowed a .914 OPS across those 54 PA. With Texas facing him for the 2nd time within 30 days, increased familiarity should help from the start of this game.
Boyd throws his 91.4 MPH 4-seam fastball 38.6% of the time, allowing a .277 BA and .358 wOBA against that offering. Of his 10 home runs allowed, 5 have come against that pitch. Texas ranks 7th in wOBA and 12th in ISO against left-handed 4-seamers this season, and 7th in RV/100 against 4-seamers overall within the last 30 days. His slider receives 28.3% usage and is his best offering, holding opponents to a .265 wOBA. Texas hits sliders very well, however, ranking 5th in ISO and 3rd in wOBA against left-handed sliders this season. In the last 30 days against sliders overall, they rank 2nd in RV/100. His changeup is a good pitch but saw lower than average usage in that first matchup. His curveball allowed the home run to Corey Seager and is a pitch Texas hits well, ranking 5th in wOBA against left-handed curveballs.
Texas has scored 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings against 16 of the last 19 left-handed starting pitchers they have faced. They’re 3.61 runs in the first 5 innings on average ranks 1st in MLB, but when at home that mark jumps to 4.32. Against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days, the Rangers rank 3rd in wOBA, 8th in ISO, and have a wRC+ of 125. Their 19.0% K% across that 273 PA sample (the 7th largest sample during that span) ranks as the 8th lowest mark. Boyd has allowed 6 earned runs in his last 2 starts to the Twins and Royals, teams with a respective wRC+ of 83 and 65 in the last 30 days against southpaw pitching. Both of those teams’ strikeout at heavy rates and have very little power, and Boyd still struggled. His road splits are also a bit deceiving given his matchups. He faced teams such as Washington, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Minnesota, and the White Sox all on the road while all of those teams are either poor against LHP or lack power. Now, with a step up in competition level, Boyd may have a tough time against Texas tonight.
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