Javan Shouey
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Another 15-game MLB slate is on tap for this Sunday and there are numerous interesting matchups worth tuning into. The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are playing another game in London while Nathan Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole square off in the Bronx. There is also an entertaining Astros vs Dodgers game to cap off the night, but my favorite value is elsewhere on the slate. Let’s dive in!
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MacKenzie Gore (Nationals) over 4.5 hits allowed (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
MacKenzie Gore, the 3rd overall pick in the 2017 draft by the San Diego Padres, was traded last year along with seemingly the rest of the Padres farm system in return for a Juan Soto-focused package. The 24-year-old left-hander is now the co-ace of a rebuilding Nationals organization alongside Josiah Gray. We faded Gray in yesterday’s game by taking his under 17.5 outs recorded. Despite 5.1 innings of scoreless baseball, San Diego was patient enough to get him out of the game before his 18th out. San Diego has been one of the league’s more frustrating teams this season with their inconsistent offensive production. That being said, they have done very well against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days. During that span they rank 10th in AVG, 2nd in SLG, and their 132 wRC+ ranks 1st in MLB. Their 40.7% hard-hit rate in that sample of 257 PA is 3rd highest which points to nearby regression in their 22nd-ranked BABIP.
Gore posted a 3.00 ERA in April and a 4.06 ERA in May and now a 5.16 ERA through 4 June starts. With only 19 hits allowed in his first 27 innings, his only real concern was his command. Since then, however, the left-hander has allowed 61 hits across 10 starts spanning 53.2 IP. In 7 of those 10 starts he has allowed 5 or more hits while in 5 of them he has allowed 7 or more. Among those 5 starts allowing 7 or more hits is his May 23 matchup against the Padres in his debut against his former team. Despite issuing 4 free passes, something he could easily do again, Gore allowed 7 hits across his 103 pitches. Of those 7 hits 2 went over the fence and 3 earned runs were allowed in his 4.2 IP. Those 103 pitches are essentially a batter more than his 96.9 pitches per start average this season.
San Diego didn’t even have Manny Machado in that first game and he has at least 1 hit in 13 of his last 16 games with 21 in total. Sunday baseball can be tricky to bet on as it is also a travel day for most teams and lineups can be reflective of that with star players sitting out. That being said, San Diego has tomorrow off before traveling to Pittsburgh. While some managers like to give guys 2 days of rest in this spot and a bat may sit out, the likelihood of a watered-down lineup is lessened compared to if they had a game tomorrow.
Gore has fantastic strikeout capabilities. His 30.4% chase rate and 30.2% whiff rate rank in the 69th and 79th percentile respectively and combine to give Gore a 27.6% K%. He had only 5 strikeouts in that first matchup, however, and with San Diego’s elite plate discipline the Padres should be able to find the pitches they like. They will probably like seeing Gore’s 4-seamer that has allowed a .294 BA, .508 SLG, and .374 OBA this season. Gore uses that offering 59.1% of the time and 67.7% when behind in the count. Since June 1 against left-handed 4-seamers San Diego ranks 2nd in ISO and 3rd in wOBA. Among Gore’s hits allowed this season, 65% have come against the 4-seam fastball. His curveball is the next most used pitch at a shade under 21%. Over the course of the season the Padres rank 5th in wOBA and 4th in ISO against left-handed curveballs. They are 3rd in wOBA and 9th in ISO against left-handed sliders as well, his 3rd most-used pitch at 19.2%. Overall, the lefty ranks just 25th percentile in xBA with a 45.6% hard-hit rate and 10.7%-barrel rate. We should expect another high pitch count from Gore in this game and I find comfort in Ballpark Pal giving Gore a 61% chance of allowing 5 or more hits today.
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