Javan Shouey
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A full slate of MLB action that features numerous high-end starting pitchers should have everyone’s attention today, but my immediate focus when scanning this slate of games shot to the American League Cy Young favorite, Tarik Skubal. Skubal has been tremendous as the ace of this Detroit Tigers pitching staff and today I am looking to back him in the early game today against the Braves. Let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bet for Wednesday, June 19, while you can also find out all of our MLB picks for today.
Tarik Skubal (DET) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -160 odds. Risking 1u.
Tarik Skubal has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 14 starts this season and in 22 of his 29 starts dating back to last year. His performance this season has been among the best in the sport, and his current American League Cy Young award odds reflect that, as he is the sizable favorite at this time. Skubal has been dominant all season long, even showing flashes of dominance in his lesser outings. He isn’t a pitcher that has glaring weaknesses, as he excels in numerous facets of the game. Skubal jumps ahead early in counts with first-pitch strikes and is elite at drawing opponents outside the zone on chases. His command of the zone and the tunneling effect of his pitches make it extremely difficult to get a read on his wide array of pitches. The southpaw utilizes 4 pitches at least 15.3% of the time while no single offering in his toolbox is used more than 32.6% of the time.
Skubal has been difficult on either handedness of hitter this season and has been effective regardless of venue. Overall, his batted ball profile is exceptional with a 92nd percentile hard-hit rate and a .204 xBA. He keeps the ball on the ground well which has helped limit barreled balls and homeruns. Skubal works deep into games which is always a concern for an earned runs prop under. He has been at his worst the 3rd time through the order, and this was evident in his last outing against a tough Astros lineup. Still, I like how he matches up with Atlanta today.
The Braves in the last 30 days against southpaw pitching rank just 21st in wOBA with a wRC+ of 90. They are nearly refusing to take walks in this stretch, as their 3.8% BB% is 2nd-lowest behind only the Cardinals in that span of games. They have the 2nd-highest swing rate in the last 30 days regardless of handedness faced, yet the 6th-highest swinging strike rate in that span. Their aggressive plan isn’t as potent when missing guys like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris III, and those absences also take away a ton of speed on the bases. Ultimately there is a good chance I would play this line in most matchups, but with the recent form of the Braves lineup, there is no reason to ignore this playable price on an elite left-hander.
Read our full Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves predictions
