Javan Shouey
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Today’s MLB games will take place across the league as all 30 teams are in play. With early afternoon games on the docket, baseball fans can sit back and enjoy an all-day buffet of action. At 4:05 pm ET my focus will shift to the Rockies vs Rangers game as there is a team prop I like in that matchup. Let’s dive in!
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Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
The Texas Rangers continue to crush left-handed pitching this season. On the year they rank 9th in SLG and 4th in wOBA and have a wRC+ of 123 against southpaw pitching. Each of the last 10 left-handed starting pitchers to face the Rangers has allowed 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings. Overall, Texas scores a league-leading 3.64 runs per first 5 innings, and at home that mark spikes to 4.14. They also draw walks at the 4th-highest rate against left-handers while posting the 6th-highest hard-hit rate.
On Tuesday when I took this same bet, I assumed Corey Seager would make his return to the Rangers lineup. He didn’t return then, but the Texas offense was still able to produce. An opposite-field 2-run home run by MLB RBI leader Adolis Garcia pushed Texas over the top in the 4th inning of that game, winning our bet. Seager has since returned to the lineup, recording 3 RBI in his first 2 games back. The all-star shortstop’s presence lengthens an already deep lineup.
Today’s projected lineup has 8 batters with a league-average or better wOBA against LHP since the beginning of last season. Seager has the most head-to-head history against today’s starter Kyle Freeland. In 22 PA Seager has posted a 1.446 OPS while getting on base 14 times.
Freeland has had solid returns this season, especially of late. In 18 innings this month he has allowed only 2 earned runs combined. That being said, those matchups were against Milwaukee (30th in wOBA vs LHP), Philadelphia (23rd), and Pittsburgh who was in the midst of a horrible stretch offensively. Despite Freeland cutting last season’s 4.53 ERA to 3.16 so far, his FIP has actually gone from 4.21 to 4.54. A .257 BABIP is well below his .304 career average, which makes little sense given the disposal of the shift. Freeland has also benefited from his 2nd-highest LOB% of his career. His 23.7% CSW% is the lowest mark since his rookie season, as is his chase rate. A 57.4% first-pitch strike rate sets him behind in counts and that isn’t where you want to be when the fastest average velocity on any of your pitches is still under 89 mph.
The southpaw uses a 5-pitch mix with each one receiving at least 10% usage. His sinker, slider, curveball, 4-seamer and changeup make up his repertoire in order of usage. Texas is a tough matchup for him, as the Rangers grade out very well against Freeland’s portfolio of pitches. In terms of run value/100 this season Texas ranks 6th against the sinker, 3rd against the slider, 19th against the curveball, 14th against the 4-seamer, and 5th against the changeup. The sinker and slider are Freeland’s pitches that get hit the hardest, and I am look for Texas to continue to roll.
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Chris Sale, BOS, Over 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.
Backing Chris Sale can be a roller-coaster of emotions, but at this line I am more than willing to do so. The lanky left-hander posted Cy Young-worthy seasons from 2012 to 2018, but injuries have removed him from the game in recent years. He is back and has looked very good outside of starts against AL East foes. In 43.1 innings overall, Sale has recorded 54 strikeouts while walking only 12 batters. A 66% first-pitch strike rate allows him to get ahead in counts. He then draws chases outside the zone at a 33% clip, ranking in the 86th percentile. Sale is able to win in the zone, as well, allowing a zone contact rate 2.3% below league average. The southpaw’s 22.3% K-BB% demonstrates his elite command.
While Sale has a 5.40 ERA, his 3.49 xFIP is far more in line with recent seasons. A .333 BABIP is way higher than his .296 career average, and runners are being stranded only 64% of the time, down from his career average of 76.9%. His batted-ball metrics are more than fine as he ranks 72nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 75th percentile in xBA. Sale’s 4-pitch arsenal is comprised of a 4-seam fastball, slider, sinker and changeup. More than 53% of Sale’s strikeouts come from his slider that generates whiffs at a 39% clip. His changeup is a weapon saved for right-handed batters but induces a 29.3% whiff rate and 41.7% putaway rate when thrown in 2-strike counts.
Sale threw 110 pitches in his last outing across 8.0innings of work. That was his 3rd consecutive start going at least 6 innings. His outs line for tonight is set at 17.5 with juice towards the over. San Diego isn’t the greatest matchup, sporting a 21.6% K% against left-handed pitching, but they haven’t faced many high K-rate lefties. The bottom of the order is filled with swing-and-miss candidates. That includes Jake Cronenworth from the left side and likely Nelson Cruz. Clayton Kershaw (7), Wade Miley (8) and David Peterson (6) have all cleared this mark against San Diego. Sale has gone over this line in 6 of his 8 starts this season. His first miss was a repeat matchup against the Orioles, and the other was 5 strikeouts against a Cleveland lineup that doesn’t whiff often. Look for Sale to record 6 or more strikeouts once again tonight.
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