Javan Shouey
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MLB fans have a lot to celebrate today with all 30 teams in action and plenty of daytime baseball. The slate is filled with wonderful weather and interesting pitching matchups. After backing the Texas Rangers offense successfully yesterday, I am looking to continue the winning ways with a fade of Giants right-hander Ross Stripling. Let’s dive in, but make sure you check out our MLB picks for each of today’s 15 matchups.
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Ross Stripling (SF) under 15.5 outs recorded (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
Ross Stripling was signed by the Giants this offseason to a 2-year $25 million contract, but the right-hander has had a shaky start to his stint in San Francisco. Stripling has pitched both out of the bullpen and in the rotation, struggling in both roles. His 4.05 pitches per plate appearance ranks tied for 21st most among qualifiers with Yusei Kikuchi. A 9.3% decrease in his chase rate from last season is resulting in longer counts and his location hasn’t been ideal. Four of Stripling’s 8 games this season have been starts, with all 4 of them resulting in fewer than 16 outs recorded. Dating back to last season, Stripling is under this mark in 18 of 28 starts made.
Even in the start Stripling made against Houston when he finished his 5 innings in only 73 pitches, he was pulled from the game. This makes sense given the right-hander’s struggled the 3rd time through the order. He has only 11 PA against batters the 3rd time through the order this season but has allowed a 1.017 OPS. For his career, Stripling allows an OPS+ of 88 the first time through, 106 the 2nd time, and 124 the 3rd time. In 69 combined PA against Stripling, active Philadelphia bats have a combined .383 xwOBA and .607 xSLG.
Stripling has been hit very hard this season. He ranks in just the 8th percentile or worse in barrel rate, xSLG and xBA, while failing to generate many whiffs. Stripling’s 3 main pitches have allowed an xwOBA of .436, .406 and .341 respectively, all of which are well above league-average marks. The slider is his most used pitch but the Phillies rank 1st in run value/100 this season against that offering. Overall, Philadelphia ranks 6th in wOBA and have a wRC+ of 110 against right-handed pitching this season.
While the Giants’ bullpen has been worked of late, San Francisco still has 4 regular bullpen arms fully available. Sean Manaea is also rejoining the bullpen after poor outings as a starter. Manaea hasn’t pitched in 7 days and is primarily going to serve as the team’s long reliever for now. “At the end of the day, it’s going to be a blessing in disguise,” Manaea said. “I’ll go in there with the right mindset and work on things I need to and get my stuff to a consistent shape and obviously try to get guys out in an efficient manner.” His availability is key as if Stripling struggles out of the gate, the Giants have a backup plan in place. With the Phillies looking to avoid a sweep, I expect a strong offensive showing, and the bats to get to Stripling early.
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Matthew Liberatore (STL) over 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
Matthew Liberatore got a taste of MLB action last season before being sent back down to further hone his skills. While his 7 starts weren’t particularly effective, the experience should help him as he re-enters the Cardinals’ rotation. With what St. Louis has been throwing out there every 5 days, calling up their 4th-ranked prospect makes a ton of sense. They are also in the midst of a scheduling quirk that doesn’t allow them a day off until May 31. That stretch of daily games resulted in a decision to go to a 6-man starting rotation.
Liberatore also earned this spot. His play in AAA for the Memphis Redbirds has certainly been noteworthy. In 46 innings pitched, the 23-year-old left-hander has recorded a 1.17 WHIP and 3.13 ERA. His 56 strikeouts in those 46 innings are a result of his 32% CSW% which ranks 4th highest among AAA pitchers with 400 or more pitches thrown. His 46 innings lead minor league baseball, and he has thrown 93 or more pitches in each of his last 6 starts. In each of his 8 starts this season Liberatore has recorded at least 5 strikeouts. He has 6 or more in 7 of those starts.
The southpaw has increased his velocity since last seen at the MLB level. His sinker sits 95 mph while reaching 98 mph at times, and his 4-seamer has been sitting around 94-95 mph. Liberatore also throws a slider and occasional changeup. His main attraction, however, is his looping curveball that has generated a 19.2% swinging strike rate this season. The average speed on his curveball is below 76 mph which certainly keeps batters off balance.
His matchup is the Milwaukee Brewers who have a league-high 30.7% K% against left-handed pitching. They rank 29th in zone contact rate and have a league-high 29.3% CSW%. The player in Milwaukee’s projected lineup with the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since last season began is Owen Miller. Even Miller strikes has a 22.6% K% against LHP during that time. Bruce Dreckman is a typically fair home plate umpire. With Milwaukee’s fondness for the whiff, 5 strikeouts are well within reach for the talented pitcher.
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