Javan Shouey
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With 4 games already postponed for Thursday’s MLB slate our options have been limited, but there is still plenty of value to find! My best angle from today’s slate will be a day game as the Toronto Blue Jays take on the Royals in Kansas City. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also check out our MLB picks for each of today’s matchups.
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Jordan Lyles (KCR) 5+ hits allowed / Toronto Blue Jays ML (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
Jordan Lyles, a veteran journeyman, is in his 13th MLB season and we have a pretty solid understanding of what to expect. With a career ERA of 5.09, Lyles is nothing more than a back-of-rotation inning-eater. A 2-year $17 million deal brought him to the Royals after a year in Baltimore where he got hit around. Last season Lyles ranked 13th percentile or worse last season in xBA, xSLG, xERA and barrel rate. One of the few things he did well was limit walks. That is ideal for this prop, however, as we need the ball in play as much as possible. The right-hander had just a 20th-percentile whiff rate last year, a worrisome mark for someone who lives in the zone as often as he does.
Last season Lyles allowed a hit every 15.24 pitches thrown, and every 3.95 batters faced. He averaged 93.4 pitches and 24.19 batters faced per game in his 32 starts. In those 32 starts, he surrendered at least 5 hits in 27 of those games. This includes all 3 starts against today’s opponent, the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto hasn’t had the start to the season they wanted offensively, ranking middle of the pack in runs per game. That being said, they are still a potent lineup bound to break out at any moment. Active Toronto bats have a career .284 batting average against Lyles in 131 combined PA.
Kevin Gausman will make his 2nd start of the season today following a decent outing against the Cardinals. He did allow 8 hits, but 7 strikeouts and 11 ground balls helped him get out of jams with relative ease. Now, against a struggling Royals lineup, I expect Gausman to pitch very well. Kansas City bats have a combined .217 xBA against Gausman in 70 PA with a 34.3% strikeout rate. They are a youthful lineup with a significant drop-off from their top-end talent to the bottom of the order. In 171 PA against right-handed pitching so far this year Kansas City has a wRC+ of 46 and a BA of .154. I like Toronto to win this game and love bringing the juice down with a correlated leg in Lyles hits allowed.
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