Best MLB prop bet for today 4/1: Fading Madison Bumgarner

The MLB season is back, and so am I for my second season with the Pickswise family! After winning on Max Scherzer O5.5 strikeouts on Opening Day, let’s continue to build! Be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for today.

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Madison Bumgarner (ARI) under 4.5 strikeouts (-135)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. 

Veteran southpaw Madison Bumgarner is coming off an extremely disappointing season. In 30 starts last year, Bumgarner registered a 5.53 xERA, which ranked 3rd percentile in all of MLB. He was constantly getting hit hard, ranking 13th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate. His strikeout upside is severely limited as the 33-year-old recorded only 112 punchouts in his 158.2 IP. With an average of 24.24 pitches between each strikeout, Bumgarner was held under this 4.5 line in 20 of his 30 starts last year, good for a 67% hit rate towards the under.

Last season, Bumgarner averaged a shade over 90 pitches per start. In the spring, he made 3 starts while recording 76 pitches in his final outing. He only recorded 1 strikeout in those 76 pitches and had a combined 6 strikeouts in his 11.1 IP total. At this stage of his career, he just simply isn’t generating enough whiffs to rack up strikeouts in a consistent manner. As for the matchup, Bumgarner was held under this total in 2 of the 3 games last year while recording a combined 9 Ks in 17 IP. This year’s Dodgers lineup is a bit different with some new faces, but still projects to be an overall patient lineup. Vargas, Taylor, and Thompson are our 3 main concerns as they do like to K, but overall, there is too much to like here to pass up.

Check out our +935 MLB mega parlay

Jose Urquidy (HOU) under 4.5 strikeouts (+115)

Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100

Jose Urquidy is someone I often picked on last season in the strikeout market when getting playable juice on his 4.5 line. The 27-year-old right-hander has just a 20.3% strikeout rate for his career and last season that mark dipped to 19.7%. Across 164.1 IP, he tallied only 134 strikeouts, recording one every 19.7 pitches thrown. Urquidy is primarily a fastball pitcher, throwing his 4-seamer 52.7% of the time. That pitch wasn’t successful for him, however, as he allowed a .275 xBA and .526 xSLG. That pitch also had his lowest whiff rate. Overall, in 2022 he ranked 25th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, and xERA. 

His spring training was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic and his pitch count is likely not fully built up as a result. In his 28 starts last season, Urquidy was held under this 4.5 mark 16 times, but when seeing between 50-96 pitches (eliminates bullpen appearances and games with full leash) he was under in 10/14 games, barely eclipsing 4 strikeouts in those games. One of those starts was against these White Sox, a game in which he lasted 7.2 innings but only recorded 4 strikeouts. Chicago’s lineup today has 5 batters who had a K% lower than 20% against RHP last season. Eloy Jimenez struck out at a league-average rate against RHP, while Yoan Moncada and Seby Zavala are our main concerns. With Zavala batting 9th, I only expect Urquidy to see him twice, which helps give this value at plus money.

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