Javan Shouey
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Max Scherzer (NYM) over 5.5 strikeouts (-140)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to the -145 available at BetMGM Sportsbook.
The highly anticipated start to the 2023 MLB season is finally here, and Opening Day is upon us. Max Scherzer will get the first-day nod for the visiting New York Mets, his 7th Opening-Day start in his illustrious career. While some pitchers enter the campaign with worries about the new pitch clock, Scherzer seemed to be experimenting with it in Spring Training. The veteran stated that he “can’t take his eyes off of it”, noting that he was called for a violation in the Spring but that it will be his last. Speaking of his preseason, it was rather impressive.
Across a 17.2 IP-tune up, Scherzer accrued 25 strikeouts to only 2 walks while seeing his pitch count continue to climb. Early in the season it can be hard to rely on pitchers to have their full workload, and angles towards the under may be the best look in general until their leashes are extended. That being said, Scherzer is a bit different, having pitched 7 and 6 innings in his final 2 starts. His final start saw his pitch count reach 100, a mark rarely seen in exhibition games. To me, that was a clear sign he is fired up and ready to go for the season. In those last 2 appearances he tallied 8 and 11 strikeouts. Now, to open the season, we get a 5.5 line for Scherzer. While the price is beginning to become a bit prohibitive, -140 for 6 strikeouts is certainly a price I am willing to pay.
Last season Scherzer cleared this 5.5 mark in 18 of 23 regular-season starts, averaging just 12.52 pitches between strikeouts recorded. At that rate, we would need only around 75 pitches in an average matchup, while Miami appears to be an opportune spot to attack on paper. The Marlins added high-contact bats in Luis Arraez and Jean Segura but have strikeout-prone bats littered elsewhere in their lineup. I count 4 prime targets in the projected lineup with 2 more favorable spots. Scherzer ranked 89th percentile last season in K% while generating chases in the 90th percentile and whiffs in the 83rd percentile. Look for Scherzer to begin his 2023 campaign with a strong effort and 6 or more strikeouts.
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