Javan Shouey
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Game 1 of this Tigers vs Astros Wild Card series resulted in a dominant outing from Tarik Skubal and the Detroit bullpen, shutting out Houston until the 9th inning in their huge 3-1 victory. The Astros will now send Hunter Brown to the mound as the team looks to stay alive and force a Game 3. Let’s break down today’s best MLB player prop bet for Wild Card Wednesday, while you can also check out our MLB picks for EVERY Wild Card game today.
Read our full Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros predictions for their huge Game 2
Hunter Brown (HOU) under 6.5 strikeouts (-165)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable at that price.
The -165 price on Hunter Brown under 6.5 strikeouts may scare off some readers, but this seems to be an entire strikeout too high in my opinion, as Houston will be quick to pull the leash on their young right-hander at the first sign of serious trouble. Houston was shut down offensively in Game 1 yesterday, scoring just 1 run in their loss to Tarik Skubal and the Tigers bullpen. There is no Skubal for Detroit today, but their bullpen that was dominant in September is set to take on another high workload. Framber Valdez had a rough 2nd inning before settling down for Houston, but their pitching situation is less enticing today. Brown tossed just 7 innings last season in his 4 playoff appearances, and he has just 7 total strikeouts across his combined 10.2 innings of postseason ball in his career. In the regular season, Brown recorded 179 strikeouts across his 170 innings of work but was held under this 6.5 mark in 18 of his 30 starts. That was with an average of 93.5 pitches per start, a mark he is not likely to approach in this spot.
Yusei Kikuchi is currently lined up to start Game 3, if necessary, but Houston has stated their willingness to utilize him out of the bullpen in Game 2 if things go sideways at all. Ronel Blanco pitched in Game 1 but shouldn’t be ruled out of a possible Game 2 appearance, and with this potentially being the team’s final game of the year I expect Houston to leave no stone unturned. It is highly unlikely that Brown sees the Detroit batting order a 3rd time through, and he is already someone that can struggle with command of the strike zone at times. This harms his pitch count with his below-average chase rate that sits just 33rd percentile. Detroit is not an overpowering offensive unit by any stretch, but they have been far more effective against right-handed pitching, and I like Brown to stay under 6.5 strikeouts in this spot.
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