Two things dawned on me today: tomorrow is officially the end of summer, and in less than two weeks, we’ll be watching playoff baseball. While not everyone is ecstatic about the impending season change, the final push of the MLB regular season always delivers on the excitement. It can be tough to gauge the player prop market since a whole lot of teams are essentially playing for nothing right now. Before I help guide you through my favorite props of the day, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks if you are looking to wager on any game sides or totals.
Towards the end of the season, managers will often deviate from the strategies that got them to this point. It’s as crucial as ever to stay mindful of a team’s playoff positioning in an attempt to gauge the manager’s mindset for how long a leash he will allow upon his starter. With that, I’m looking to fade two lefties tonight, both of whom should be pulled at the first sign of significant trouble.
Marco Gonzales (SEA) under 4.5 strikeouts (-138)
Line available at time of publishing.
In his fifth season with the Mariners, Gonzales continues to be solid, if not unspectacular. For the third consecutive season, the crafty lefty was the Mariners’ opening-day starter. And while he’s compiled a respectable 4.05 ERA, Gonzales has registered only 95 strikeouts in 124.1 innings. Since July 1, he’s been even more contact-oriented with only 53 strikeouts in 76.2 innings. And away from home, Gonzales’ 16% strikeout rate ranks 131st of 142 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched.
On top of all the low strikeout totals, Gonzales has a very tough matchup tonight. Now matter how you divvy up the data, Oakland represents a very strikeout-averse team. Their K rate over the last two weeks is the second-lowest. How about versus lefties over the last 30 days? 8th-lowest. With those stats, it’s unsurprising to see that 16 of the last 25 left-handed starters against Oakland have stayed under this total. And all 9 pitchers who did reach 5+ strikeouts had a higher K rate than Gonzales.
As a team, Oakland has a 19% strikeout rate against the southpaw. Even if he’s able to go 6 innings, I have Gonzales’ strikeouts comfortably projected at around 3.5 tonight, making this a strong play on the under.
Trevor Rogers (MIA) under 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Line available at time of publishing.
The Marlins lefty has put together a solid first season in the majors. With 141 strikeouts over 122.1 innings pitched, he’s shown an above-average propensity for punchouts. However, whether it be the fatigue of a long season, or the residual affects of a midseason injury, Rogers has cooled off considerably on the strikeout front. He’s 5 for his last 7 on the under, and has not been pushed past the 5th inning in any of those starts.
Rogers gets a Nationals lineup that has been tough to strikeout all season. As of the last month, Washington’s strikeout rate against southpaws is second-lowest. And better yet, their team OPS versus lefties over that span is 3rd-best, giving them a great chance to chase the young pitcher early.
With both a soft pitch count and a tough matchup in tote, I love the play on the under here. I have Rogers falling just short of 5 strikeouts on my projections.
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