We are back with another Tuesday edition of MLB player props. Thanks to some double-headers, we are treated to the rare 17-game slate today, giving us a multitude of props of which to bet. Before I get into those, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks if you are looking to wager on any game sides or totals.
While maybe not the most aesthetically pleasing of wagers, unders on player props offer a multitude of outs for your bet to hit (pun intended, both times). Tonight, I’m focusing in on two unders in which prevailing trends, especially recently, have each pitcher underperforming his line.
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Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) under 17.5 pitching outs (-130)
Line available at publishing.
Available at BetMGM and other select books, pitching outs is a good prop to play when the data skews more towards a pitcher’s overall performance versus his opponent, as opposed to purely strikeouts. In this case, I’m seeing plenty of reason to believe Rodriguez will struggle versus his intra-divisional opponent.
E-Rod has stayed under this line in 15 of his 21 starts this season, including each of his last 5. He has pitched to a 5.33 ERA, and is inefficient with his pitch count. Rodriguez’s pitches per plate appearance (4.04) ranks as the 20th highest amongst 114 qualifying starting pitchers. Averaging more than 17 pitches per inning, the lefty being a high strikeout pitcher typically lends to an inflated pitch count.
Tonight’s matchup, the Rays, offer two positive angles for the under. The first is their propensity to work deep into their at-bats – Tampa ranks 8th as a team in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.97). They also have seen the 8th most 3-ball counts. While they remain a high-strikeout team, the Rays make opposing pitchers work hard.
And lately, Tampa has been hitting left-handers well. Over the last 30 days, the Rays’ team OPS versus southpaws ranks 6th (.781). As a team, they have a .360 on base percentage versus Rodriguez in past appearances. If they are able to plate some early runs, Red Sox manager Alex Cora might come through with the quick hook. As Boston has struggled recently, Cora has kept a short leash on his starting pitching. Only once in the last 14 games has a Red Sox starter made it through at least 6.0 innings.
While Rodriguez did muster 6.0 innings in his earlier appearance versus Tampa this season, he did allow 7 hits and 5 runs. With the playoff race heating up, I don’t foresee him having the same leash tonight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Jake Odorizzi (HOU) under 5.5 strikeouts (-126)
Line available at publishing.
In his first season pitching for the Astros, Odorizzi has registered a 4.95 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Excluding the start he left early with an injury, he has stayed under this strikeout total in 9 of 13 games. In his 7 starts since July 1st, Odorizzi’s strikeout rate of 15 percent ranks 120th of 140 qualifying pitchers.
And while we don’t get them at Coors Field, the Rockies have been strikeout averse of late. Colorado has the fourth lowest K percentage over the last 30 days (20.5 percent). And while the home/road splits are typically stark, their strikeout percentage on the road has held up (20.7 percent over the last month).
Not only is this a tough opponent to strikeout, but Odorizzi might not get much of a chance either. The Astros pitcher has only averaged 82 pitches over his last 12 appearances. He doesn’t get much of a chance to face a lineup a third time through the order, but when he does he gets shelled (.455 batting average against). Astros manager Dusty Baker is likely looking for 5 good innings from his starter before he turns it over to a rested bullpen.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros
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