Javan Shouey
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As always there are several angles to attack on a full Saturday slate, but there is one game I am finding value on above the rest. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Sonny Gray has been fantastic through his first 3 outings with his new club, and I am looking to back him today against the New York Mets.
Let’s dive in!
Sonny Gray (STL) Over 17.5 outs recorded (-117)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds. Risking 1u.
Sonny Gray finished 2nd in American League Cy Young voting in 2023 behind Gerrit Cole after completing a career-best season. It was a contract year for Gray with his deal set to expire in the offseason. He tossed his most innings since 2015 while maintaining a league best FIP and HR/9. His 2.79 ERA was 3rd best behind Blake Snell and the aforementioned Cole, who were the winners of that prestigious award. Gray left the Twins for St. Louis during the winter, inking a 3-year $75 million contract. Right hamstring tightness in spring training delayed Gray’s start to the season, and his first 2 outings of the regular season were held to 64 and 72 pitches respectively. Gray was able to reach 93 pitches across 25 batters faced in his last outing, however, and is now ready to take on another full workload with 5 days of rest since that last start.
Despite being limited in his first 2 starts of the season, Gray was extremely efficient. He tossed 5 and 6 innings in those 2 outings, allowing no runs or walks and only 9 combined hits. His most recent start was against a Milwaukee offense that has been hitting well to begin the season. He held the Brewers to only 7 base runners and 2 runs across 6.1 innings of work, racking up an impressive 12 strikeouts along the way. So far Gray sits 90th percentile or better in barrel rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, hard-hit rate and xBA. He has also been efficient through 3 appearances with his pitches per plate appearance at just 3.58 despite his heightened strikeout totals. Last season Gray’s 3.73 P/PA was the 11th fewest among 100 qualified pitchers, and he got ahead early with his highest 1st-pitch strike rate since 2017. He gets a Mets lineup today that averages the 5th fewest P/PA of any team this season at just 3.78.
Gray tossed 6 or more innings of work in 19 of his 32 starts last year, including 14 of his final 17 to end the regular season. Often his 6 or 7 inning outing was done after 75-80 pitches, as well, leaving room for error. Minnesota was a team that monitors their pitching workloads throughout the year with shorter pitch count outings like that, but now Gray is with a new club and we could see higher pitch counts on a regular basis. I expect 90 or more pitches here today especially given the current bullpen situation for the Cardinals. St. Louis used Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero and Ryan Helsley in 2 of the last 3 days and they would be really extending their high-leverage arms with appearances today. This leaves the team in desire of a long outing from their ace, and 6 or more innings is well within play at this price.
