Ahaan Rungta
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We have a full 15-game schedule on today’s MLB slate, but I have put in the work for you to find betting value. These are my 2 favorite MLB player prop bets for the evening slate of Tuesday, April 23. You can also find out our experts’ MLB picks for tonight’s matchups.
MJ Melendez (KC) Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
After a scorching start to the MLB season, the Royals’ offense has been inconsistent lately but today, they get a bounce-back spot against the veteran starter who is likely playing through some physical concerns in the Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman. On the season, Gausman has posted a 3.78 SIERA — a significant downgrade from his recent years — and an abysmal 6.21 xFIP against left-handed hitters.
Lefty MJ Melendez is a great candidate to do damage and the books seem to agree, as he carries a significantly short price to hit a home run today on books that offer the “no home run” market. This year Melendez has posted an elite 139 wRC+, .315 ISO and 38.1% HardHit% against right-handed pitchers. Dating back to 2023 he has recorded a solid 1.9 run value/100 against right-handed splitters, Gausman’s best put-away weapon that is the best among all Royals regulars in that span.
Melendez has a great chance to produce against the starter tonight, but even if he doesn’t cash us early, the Blue Jays’ bullpen is far from daunting — ranking #25 in SIERA.
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Jackson Merrill (SD) Over 0.5 runs scored (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Backing a bottom-of-the-order bat to cross home plate may be a scary prop, but that info is baked into this line and we’re getting a great buy-low spot here on a hitter who has not scored a single run in his last 9 games.
The matchup today is the Rockies and their starting pitcher Ryan Feltner. Although Feltner has displayed some flashes of potential, he still does have to toe the rubber in Coors Field tonight and face the left-hander Jackson Merrill. On the season, Feltner has allowed a .514 SLG against left-handed bats with his best 2 pitches being a 4-seam fastball and a changeup. Meanwhile, Merrill has posted a 142 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, an elite 4.4 run value/100 against right-handed 4-seamers and an encouraging 0.9 run value/100 against right-handed changeups. Overall, he ranks in the upper quartile of all MLB hitters in xwOBA, xSLG and HardHit%.
Jackson Merrill’s player profile, per Baseball Savant
The key to backing the “run scored” prop is that while Merrill has a good shot of getting on base today, his teammates can also be trusted in this matchup. The Padres rank #1 in MLB as a team against Feltner’s 3-pitch mix (4-seam, slider, changeup from the right side). The Rockies’ bullpen is also a well-known punching bag, as they rank #27 in SIERA and the Padres are the road team here — so 4 plate appearances should give us plenty of opportunity to watch Merrill round the bases.
Shoot for the moon today with our MLB parlay picks at +790 odds!
