Javan Shouey
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Thanks to a doubleheader between the Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs today, Saturday’s beautiful MLB slate just became even more entertaining. For today’s highlighted prop play we are heading to the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati to fade Los Angeles starter Patrick Sandoval. Let’s dive in!
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) under 15.5 outs recorded (-117)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds. Risking 1u.
Patrick Sandoval has made 32 starts for the Los Angeles Angels in the last 2 seasons, remaining under this 15.5 outs recorded prop in 22 of those games. That includes 3 of his 4 starts to begin 2024 with his single over coming against the putrid Marlins offense that has a 48 wRC+ against southpaw pitching. Sandoval is someone that has struggled with his efficiency, averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance in those last 32 starts. His career-long 10.2% walk rate is up to 11.3% and 11.0% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, and his below average first pitch strike rate plays a large role in those struggles. Last night fellow left-hander Tyler Anderson was able to give the Angels 7 strong innings against these same Cincinnati Reds, but Anderson is an efficient pitcher that jumps ahead 0-2 on batters 39.8% of the time, the 4th highest rate among qualified arms. Sandoval, however, jumps ahead 0-2 just 23.2% of the time.
Something to note early in the season is that the Angels fastball usage as a team has spiked this year, while the rest of the league has seemingly been going the other way. Sandoval is one of those Los Angeles arms leaning more heavily on his heater despite his shaky results on that offering historically. Since entering the league Sandoval has never posted a positive run value on his 4-seamer, and yet his 2024 approach is incorporating that pitch the most he has since 2020. Opponents are hitting .474 against his heater so far while generating a 50.0% hard-hit rate and a .579 SLG. His sinker, which has been a good pitch for him in recent seasons, also has a negative run value currently while opponents are hitting .444 against it. If both of his fastballs are being knocked around it puts more pressure on Sandoval to locate his secondary offerings.
As for the matchup, Cincinnati will likely send 8 right-handed batters to the plate to face Sandoval, playing into the pitcher’s weaker split. Against right-handed batters in 2023 Sandoval issued a 12.3% walk rate and his WHIP spiked to 1.61. Cincinnati also benefits from playing their home games in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark where wind is blowing out today. The Reds have the 6th most PA against southpaw pitching this season. They sit 12th in wOBA, 6th in BB%, and have the 10th lowest ground ball rate which is encouraging when betting an under on outs recorded. Cincinnati also ranks 9th in P/PA as a team in 2024. The Angels bullpen is largely rested outside of Adam Cimber who would be making his 3rd appearance in 4 days if he entered this game. I expect Sandoval to exit the game after 5 or fewer frames.
