Ahaan Rungta
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We have only 4 MLB games to work with this Thursday and only 3 in the evening. It is on days like these that your bankroll should not be spent heavily. Continue being disciplined and saving your spending for better slates. However, I have found one spot that is worth the cost tonight and it is on a player prop in the nation’s capital. Here is my best player prop bet for the evening of Thursday, August 31.
Remember you can also read our game previews for every game in our MLB predictions, as well as our MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets.
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Jake Burger (Marlins) Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-130)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 0.75u wager.
The 25-year-old starting pitcher Joan Adon has been one of the pleasant surprises of the year for the Washington Nationals. After he was destroyed at the major-league level last year, he has posted a serviceable 4.44 SIERA this season and just 6 days ago he faced the Marlins and cooked up 6 shutout innings. However, facing the same pitcher a second time in the span of a week is usually bad news for the guy on the mound and there is a reason Adon’s pitching outs prop is juiced to the under and his earned runs prop is juiced to the over. Miami will likely get to the young arm tonight and a top candidate to lead the charge is their new acquisition Jake Burger.
Since joining Miami, Burger has hit the over on this prop in 13 of his 25 starts and he gets the perfect matchup tonight. As a Marlin, Burger has a team-leading 143 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, a team-leading 4.1 RV/100 against right-handed sliders, a solid 0.5 RV/100 against right-handed curveballs and a decent 0.2 RV/100 against right-handed 4-seamers. Those three pitches have made up 77.4% of Adon’s pitches to right-handed batters this season.
Even after Adon exits, the Nationals bullpen reads as an easy matchup. In August, Washington’s relievers rank 22nd in MLB in SIERA with the 13th-highest HardHit% allowed to right-handed batters. The Marlins have an implied Vegas total of 5 runs today and if they are to get near that number, they are likely getting some production from Burger.
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