Betting pitcher props in the playoffs is risky business. These guys have the shortest of leashes and at any point, your guy can just get the hook. It’s a dirty game at this point but some people like dirty. I know I do. It makes it more fun. Today at 4:20pm ET, we’ve got the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros in Game 2 of the ALCS. There has to be a MLB player prop we can feel good about in there somewhere. I think I may have found it too.
If you’re on Twitter, you need to follow me right now. That’s the best advice I can give you and probably the smartest thing you will do all day. Once lineups are announced for some of this game, there is a chance for opportunity to knock. You should be there to answer it.
Luis Garcia under 4.5 strikeouts (-115)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
We don’t have a big choice here since DraftKings and BetMGM are the only ones with a number on this MLB player prop. DraftKings has this one at -115 while BetMGM has -135, so we’ll go with DraftKings. FanDuel has nothing so far in terms of pitcher strikeouts for either MLB game today.
This could absolutely blow up in our faces, but Garcia is going to have to earn it for that to happen. I don’t know if he can. In his last 5 starts, he’s hit this number only once. He’s been a walk machine, too, giving up at least 3 free passes in 3 of those 5 starts. The Astros kept Framber Valdez on a tight leash last night, letting him throw only 64 pitches. Garcia usually tops out in the 80s anyway, so he’ll likely be gone at the first sign of trouble.
Although the Red Sox struck out 10 times last night, the Houston starter was responsible for only 2 of them. They have been good in the postseason about making contact, as they struck out only 37 times in 5 games with the Tampa Bay Rays. That’s not that bad. They had a game in which they struck out only 3 times and another in which they fanned only 5 times. All they have to do is take walks and make contact against this guy and he’ll likely get pulled before he can whiff 5.
This is my favorite MLB player prop of the day.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
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