JutPicks
Show Bio
Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 157 wins and 105 losses for a gain of +40 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Monday.
Get our MLB picks for EVERY game today
Zac Gallen (ARI) under 6.5 Ks (-152)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is not a mistake. I am taking an under on Zac Gallen. Gallen has been a workhorse for us all season long. No matter if it’s his outs recorded or earned runs allowed, we’ve won plenty of bets backing him. But, I see value on his strikeouts tonight. The line has jumped to 6.5 with plenty of others backing the over at 5.5.
Gallen looked like a sneaky NL CY Young candidate at the start of the season but has slowly dipped out of the race. His strikeouts numbers have fallen as well compared to last season. He recorded at least 7 strikeouts in 10 starts in 2021. Fast forward to this season and he’s under this line in 14 of 20 starts, including only 4 against tonight’s opponent, the Pittsburgh Pirates.
There’s no hiding from the Pirates’ struggles against right-handed pitching. They strike out at the 3rd-most rate this season at a 25% clip. Like most professional sports, people only care about what you have done recently. In the month of August, the Pirates have struck out against right-handed pitchers at the 6th-lowest rate. They’ve held star pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff to 9 combined strikeouts in 12.1 innings pitched.
I expect the Pirates to put out a less K-happy lineup for Gallen and for them to rise his pitch count up. The under at 5.5 strikeouts intrigues me as well. If you’re able to find it on DraftKings at +125, I’m comfortable with putting a half unit on it.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
