JutPicks
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 174 wins and 128 losses for a gain of +30.20 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Sunday.
Get our MLB picks for all 16 games today!
Noah Syndergaard (PHI) under 2.5 earned runs (-130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Noah Syndergaard has fitted right in with the Philadelphia Phillies. All 5 of the Phillies’ rotation arms rank in the top 100 in groundball outs including newly acquired Syndergaard. He should coast through a Pirates lineup that is hitting .221 against right-handed pitchers in August and ranks in the top 5 in groundball percentage during that span.
In 4 starts with the Philadelphia Phillies, Syndergaard has allowed 10 earned runs in 25 innings pitched for an ERA of 3.30. He has faced off against some weak competition with the Cincinnati Reds twice, and division foes the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals. It may seem impossible, but it gets easier today. The Pirates have registered only 2 runs against the last 4 right-handed starters they have faced. That is across 25 innings and nearly getting shut out in back-to-back games.
This will be Syndergaard’s first non-night start all year since he spent the majority of his time with the Los Angeles Angels. This should be no issue for the 8-year veteran on his 3rd team in 3 years. Syndergaard has gone under this line in 11 of 19 starts this season and in both starts at Citizens Bank Park.
Be sure to check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Aaron Civale (CLE) over 4.5 Ks (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Aaron Civale is another cornerstone piece in the Cleveland Guardians’ rotation along with Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill. After a daunting start to his 2022 campaign, Civale has a 2.45 ERA in 3 starts in August including 18 strikeouts in 14.2 innings pitched. Today, he’ll face off against a Seattle Mariners team who have struggled in all aspects against right-handed pitching.
I was personally on Zach Plesac over 3.5 strikeouts last night against the Mariners. Other than giving up 3 solo home runs, Plesac was dominant. He went 7 innings and struck out 6 batters. Civale has much more strikeout potential than his teammate Plesac. Civale is averaging over a strikeout in an inning while Plesac is under 0.8 strikeouts per inning pitched.
The Mariners in August have a K rate of over 23% against right-handed pitchers which ranks as the 8th highest in baseball. Civale returned from a month-long IL stint and has slowly seen his pitch count rise. He threw 95 pitches in his last start against the San Diego Padres. In his start before that, he threw 82 pitches and punched out 10 Detroit Tigers.
Civale made 2 career starts against the Mariners last season and registered 17 strikeouts in 14.2 innings pitched. I expect Civale to continue to be a viable backend starter for the Guardians and to pitch fairly well on the road today.
Be sure to check out our Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners predictions
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